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Prediction markets for Employer Services

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Jan 25, 4:01 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

25.49%chance

192020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

585

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

1067

Will a single person make a billion dollars utilizing AI tools before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:50 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.36%chance

271340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

848

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

Jun 16, 2:44 PMNov 11, 12:37 PM

47.13%chance

31985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

910

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Apr 9, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.14%chance

14524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

986

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

49.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

100

Will Ethiopia bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?

Aug 3, 10:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.63%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

94

86

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?

Jun 10, 12:19 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.76%chance

222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

81

61

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