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OptionProbability
A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm
An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States
Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims
An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies
Mental illness
Chronic Back Pain
Radical Leftism
Fame
Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare
Business
Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.
Genetic predisposition (Italian)
Targeted hit/contract killing
brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic
Zizian Murder Cult member
Personal conflict with CEO
Random act of violence
82
69
55
39
38
36
17
14
10
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
7902
127
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Donald Trump remains President of USA
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
Sudanese Civil War ends
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
China invades Taiwan
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
Any country leaves NATO
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
USA leaves NATO
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
95
89
83
81
75
72
68
67
62
60
58
58
57
56
56
55
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
49
47
46
46
46
46
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42
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36
36
36
35
35
34
34
33
32
31
30
30
29
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
23
23
22
22
20
20
19
19
15
15
15
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
9
8
6
6
5
4
2
1
OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
91
89
88
82
79
73
71
71
65
63
63
58
53
50
48
47
45
44
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
38
37
37
36
34
34
31
31
31
28
27
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
18
18
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1629
626
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1009
991
OptionProbability
NO
YES
416
404
OptionProbability
Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification
Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion
Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.
Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).
Other
39
17
15
15
15
OptionProbability
Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.
Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area
Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women
Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI
The Odyssean Institute
Mechanical Library
Educate the public about high impact causes
Science prediction markets for replicability
Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action
Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.
Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies
LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments
Building software to demystify land use regulations
Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use
Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)
Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression
MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks
Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives
H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training
Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides
Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge
Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.
Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss
Upgrade YIMBY messaging
Publish a book on Egan education for parents
Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.
Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM
Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling
Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science
Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act
Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts
Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries
Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty
Year one of AI Safety Tokyo
Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan
Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks
Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability
Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India
An online science platform
Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity
Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology
News through prediction markets
A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform
Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality
Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning
Replicate social science research
Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers
Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change
75
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
40
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
OptionVotes
YES
NO
110
74
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100