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OptionProbability
A set of radical beliefs that do not fit on a strict left/right paradigm
Wrongful delay or deny insurance claims
An attempt to terrorize people into bringing down the system of private insurance in the United States
An attempt to change the incentive structure present at the CEO level of UHC and similar companies
Chronic Back Pain
Mental illness
Fame
Radical Leftism
Assassin suffered a personal tragedy at the hands of UnitedHealthcare
Zizian Murder Cult member
Business
Manipulation of the share price of UnitedHealth Inc for profit.
Genetic predisposition (Italian)
Targeted hit/contract killing
brainwashed right wing anti-vax lunatic
Personal conflict with CEO
Random act of violence
85
78
60
38
36
31
18
15
14
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
5080
197
OptionProbability
Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days
Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit
≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes
DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement
≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025
Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party
Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)
Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)
Donald Trump remains President of USA
Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia
Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel
Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov
Algeria becomes a member of BRICS
China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken
Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns
North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test
A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)
A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump
Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe
A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)
Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country
A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran
A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine
Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon
Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room
Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours
Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test
At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti
Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government
A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)
Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS
Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS
Argentina becomes a member of BRICS
Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS
Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS
Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS
Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela
Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa
Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel
Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Israel annexes 100% of Gaza
A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed
Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom
A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days
World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated
Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations
Azerbaijani troops enter Iran
An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period
At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series
Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Sudanese Civil War ends
A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated
Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States
A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy
China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash
Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus
Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty
Mexico becomes a member of BRICS
The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024
United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States
Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack
Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership
The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235
A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz
Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic
Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada
The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote
Any country leaves NATO
Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup
Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
China invades Taiwan
At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population
Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged
Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State
160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.
USA leaves NATO
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII
Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member
Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)
Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede
United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"
Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)
Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory
Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state
Humans will extinct
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
89
86
82
77
77
75
71
68
67
63
62
59
59
59
57
56
55
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
49
47
47
47
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
45
45
44
44
44
43
42
42
42
41
41
40
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
30
29
29
28
27
26
25
25
24
23
23
22
19
19
18
18
15
14
14
14
13
13
11
9
9
8
8
6
6
4
1
OptionProbability
"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"
"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"
"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"
empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs
"lower taxes"
"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"
"keep men out of women’s sports"
"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"
"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"
"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"
"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"
"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"
"stop all COVID mandates"
"more jobs for American workers"
"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"
"cut the number of school administrators"
"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"
"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"
"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"
"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"
"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"
"bigger paychecks"
"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"
"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"
"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"
"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"
"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"
"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"
"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"
"passing a digital bill of rights"
"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"
"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"
declassify the 'Epstein files'
"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"
"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"
"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"
"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"
"increase fairness through price transparency"
"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"
"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"
"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"
"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"
"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"
"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"
"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"
"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"
"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"
"end surprise medical billing"
"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"
"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"
"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"
"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"
"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"
"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"
"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"
"keep America out of unnecessary foreign wars"
100
91
89
88
82
79
73
71
71
65
63
63
58
53
50
48
47
45
44
44
44
42
42
42
42
40
40
40
40
38
37
36
36
34
34
31
31
31
28
27
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
19
18
18
16
16
13
11
7
0
OptionProbability
Massachusetts
Alaska
Wyoming
Ohio
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Delaware
Montana
Maine
Idaho
South Dakota
Vermont
Pennsylvania
Indiana
Illinois
Kansas
Colorado
Nevada
South Carolina
Arkansas
Utah
Washington
Mississippi
Oregon
Florida
Oklahoma
Texas
North Carolina
Hawaii
Louisiana
Arizona
Virginia
Iowa
Kentucky
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
New Jersey
North Dakota
New Mexico
76
71
70
69
66
66
60
55
52
50
50
49
42
36
34
34
27
20
10
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1629
626
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1009
991
OptionProbability
NO
YES
416
404
OptionProbability
Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.
Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area
Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women
Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI
The Odyssean Institute
Mechanical Library
Educate the public about high impact causes
Science prediction markets for replicability
Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action
Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.
Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies
LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments
Building software to demystify land use regulations
Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use
Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)
Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression
MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks
Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives
H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training
Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides
Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge
Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.
Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss
Upgrade YIMBY messaging
Publish a book on Egan education for parents
Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.
Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM
Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling
Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science
Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act
Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts
Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries
Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty
Year one of AI Safety Tokyo
Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan
Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks
Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability
Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India
An online science platform
Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity
Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology
News through prediction markets
A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform
Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality
Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning
Replicate social science research
Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers
Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change
75
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
40
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
OptionVotes
YES
NO
110
74
OptionVotes
NO
YES
100
100