EMS News

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

38.14%chance

12221479177

OptionVotes

YES

10836

8108

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

16624

6806

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Apr 7, 12:19 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

11.54%chance

3845382

OptionVotes

YES

27689

3612

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

11734

11213

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

3211673

OptionVotes

YES

12020

5328

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.7%chance

437781

OptionVotes

YES

10458

9354

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

14718

5388

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.55%chance

484763

OptionVotes

YES

3780

1858

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Jul 2, 11:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71040

OptionProbability

Other "loud" outcome

non-hedonic utilitronium

Orgasmium

Matrioshka brains to simulate zillions of ems

initiate vacuum collapse

It will be "quiet" and not significantly alter the rest of the universe.

Paperclips or widgets

Matrioshka brains to simulate torture of everyone who didn't help create it

Literal rats on literal heroin

Wait till carbon white dwarfs cool enough to turn to diamond and then cut them into cool shapes

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

Jun 14, 1:40 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM

35.35%chance

7876

OptionVotes

YES

10313

9761

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Aug 11, 1:23 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4265

OptionProbability

As of tweet time Hanson was 50%+ on ems before 2100

The news originated in a for-profit company

It's an achieved breakthrough in em tech/science

Hanson first heard it July or August 2024

It's about ems being easy

It's about AGI being hard

Hanson made it up

Do you use em dashes?

May 12, 6:37 PM

230

EMS News

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Prediction markets for EMS

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Fed performs emergency rate cut in 2025?

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

If AI wipes out humanity, what will it make of the universe?

Will it be possible to create a human embryo through an API by 2050?

What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)

Do you use em dashes?

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