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Prediction markets for ENA

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.41%chance

18391646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1713

308

Will Trump's use of IEEPA to enact tariffs without congress be ruled unlawful?

Mar 11, 1:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.57%chance

3941910

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16264

6149

Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026?

Nov 6, 5:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

2515194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.28%chance

9515065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1619

500

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.46%chance

507971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5317

494

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?

May 16, 3:19 PMDec 31, 8:00 PM

7.05%chance

274385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2607

90

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.69%chance

10668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

755

Will significant prosecutorial reform be enacted in South Korea by 2028?

Dec 13, 12:20 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.24%chance

3390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

23.65%chance

11163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

931

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