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Prediction markets for ENA

Will Neuralink successfully enable a blind person to see again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

67.39%chance

18591740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1690

319

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Jan 21, 2:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.27%chance

10016663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1398

675

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

3.01%chance

5512423

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8856

317

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

489899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

4591

Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?

Nov 5, 2:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.35%chance

646436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

235

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?

Mar 9, 11:00 PMNov 3, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

222083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1723

873

Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?

Oct 9, 12:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.55%chance

261430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

776

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.96%chance

111277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1395

717

Will Texas enact a law restricting HRT access for transgender adults before 2032?

Mar 19, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.65%chance

13436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2598

2411

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

44.23%chance

3123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

890

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