Endeavor News

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

10.5%chance

396256

OptionVotes

YES

2919

343

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

60.61%chance

694821

OptionVotes

YES

1248

795

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.14%chance

252107

OptionVotes

YES

1591

936

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Feb 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.56%chance

221299

OptionVotes

YES

1226

845

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

111074

OptionVotes

YES

1110

946

Which shows will finish first?

Mar 28, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13531

OptionProbability

Avatar: The Last Airbender (live action) [NO] | The Wheel of Time [YES]

Star Trek: Strange New Worlds [NO] | Halo [YES]

House of Dragon [NO] | 3 Body Problem [YES]

The Bachelor (U.S.) [NO] | Love is Blind (U.S.) [YES]

X-Men '97 [NO] | Invincible [YES]

The Bear [NO] | Abbott Elementary [YES]

Doctor Who [NO] | The Simpsons [YES]

100

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

1081

940

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

245

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

Apr 15, 11:34 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

77.61%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

223

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Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Which shows will finish first?

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

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