Endeavor News

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

10.5%chance

396256

OptionVotes

YES

2919

343

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.92%chance

684764

OptionVotes

YES

1205

824

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Feb 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.56%chance

221299

OptionVotes

YES

1226

845

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.98%chance

8721

OptionVotes

YES

1180

890

Which shows will finish first?

Mar 28, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11515

OptionProbability

Avatar: The Last Airbender (live action) [NO] | The Wheel of Time [YES]

Star Trek: Strange New Worlds [NO] | Halo [YES]

House of Dragon [NO] | 3 Body Problem [YES]

The Bachelor (U.S.) [NO] | Love is Blind (U.S.) [YES]

X-Men '97 [NO] | Invincible [YES]

The Bear [NO] | Abbott Elementary [YES]

Doctor Who [NO] | The Simpsons [YES]

100

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

1081

940

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

245

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

Apr 15, 11:34 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

77.61%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

223

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will Couriway finish his 100k run challenge?

May 1, 3:49 PMDec 31, 3:45 PM

32%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

146

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Prediction markets for Endeavor

Prediction markets for Endeavor

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Which shows will finish first?

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Will Couriway finish his 100k run challenge?

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