Endeavor News

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.92%chance

684764

OptionVotes

YES

1205

824

Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?

Jan 14, 1:34 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

96.19%chance

302345

OptionVotes

YES

503

Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before Super Bowl 2026? 💔🏈

Jul 26, 8:25 AMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

1.05%chance

301858

OptionVotes

YES

972

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Feb 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.56%chance

221299

OptionVotes

YES

1226

845

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.25%chance

7691

OptionVotes

YES

1150

913

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38.27%chance

18455

OptionVotes

YES

1081

940

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Jul 9, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

40%chance

6336

OptionVotes

YES

122

Which shows will finish first?

Mar 28, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8155

OptionProbability

Star Trek: Strange New Worlds [NO] | Halo [YES]

House of Dragon [NO] | 3 Body Problem [YES]

Avatar: The Last Airbender (live action) [NO] | The Wheel of Time [YES]

The Bachelor (U.S.) [NO] | Love is Blind (U.S.) [YES]

X-Men '97 [NO] | Invincible [YES]

The Bear [NO] | Abbott Elementary [YES]

Doctor Who [NO] | The Simpsons [YES]

100

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

245

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

Apr 15, 11:34 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

77.61%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

223

Endeavor News

Prediction markets for Endeavor

Prediction markets for Endeavor

Prediction markets for Endeavor

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Will Trump allow the US Mid-term elections to run in 2026?

Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before Super Bowl 2026? 💔🏈

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Will there be a sane right wing frontier model by 2028?

Which shows will finish first?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Will my great friend and sworn enemy perish before April 2nd 2096?

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