Endeavors News

Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)

Mar 6, 9:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20317278

OptionProbability

Other

Oracle

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.84%chance

674714

OptionVotes

YES

1155

860

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Feb 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.56%chance

221299

OptionVotes

YES

1226

845

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.13%chance

211167

OptionVotes

YES

1591

936

Delta Flight 4819's pilot confirmed to be a woman

Feb 20, 9:00 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

75.64%chance

41130

OptionVotes

YES

1762

568

Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?

Dec 14, 2:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

60.99%chance

29663

OptionVotes

YES

1172

581

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5491

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Jan 28, 10:16 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

38%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

1089

935

Will on-site construction on the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) start in Hawaii before 2026

Dec 17, 12:23 AMJan 1, 9:59 AM

12.5%chance

2415

OptionVotes

YES

811

511

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

Sep 7, 6:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30%chance

16382

OptionVotes

YES

1061

964

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Apr 2, 8:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10368

OptionProbability

Event hosting/organization beyond Manifest

Working in another company/project related to "Funding for public goods" alignment besides Manifund

Austin will start another start up from scratch

Working in another company/project with another existing manifold user

Working in a tech firm

Working in an AI related company/project

Austin wont have another major project other than Manifund in the next 2 years

Working in another prediction market related company/project

Manifold Careers

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.33%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

235

Endeavors News

Prediction markets for Endeavors

Prediction markets for Endeavors

Prediction markets for Endeavors

Which company will buy TikTok? (resolves only if/when divested from China)

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Will more than 1 in 5 US adults use marijuana in a typical month of 2030?

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Delta Flight 4819's pilot confirmed to be a woman

Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Will ESA’s Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) mission to detect gravitational waves launch in 2035 as planned?

Will on-site construction on the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) start in Hawaii before 2026

Will Apple+'s Foundation series follow through to the end of Asimov's novel series?

What will be Austin's next major endeavor?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

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