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Prediction markets for Energy

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2159110

OptionProbability

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

57

24

18

1

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

506411

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

35

31

22

7

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325918

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

28

22

14

8

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.91%chance

424775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

1063

Will primary energy consumption in the US decrease by 2050?

Jan 26, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

192550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

851

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

Aug 2, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.12%chance

131987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

841

Matter and energy are finite within our universe.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

341512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

805

Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040?

Jan 12, 12:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.72%chance

141250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

781

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How much of the United State's energy will be produced by fossil fuels in 2040?

Sep 4, 6:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30%chance

17577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

710

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.52%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

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