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Prediction markets for Energy

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1957441

OptionProbability

Matt Giacona

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

52

32

16

1

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346916

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Other

Coal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Geothermal

Fusion

32

16

14

11

5

5

4

3

3

3

3

What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?

Jan 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

446168

OptionProbability

Oil

Natural gas

Solar

Other

Coal

Nuclear (fission)

Fusion

Wind

Hydropower

Traditional biomass

Geothermal

Tidal and wave

Modern biofuels

36

31

15

13

3

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

325908

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2028

2029

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

28

22

14

8

6

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will primary energy consumption in the US decrease by 2050?

Jan 26, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.08%chance

192500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

869

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

Aug 2, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.24%chance

121930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

955

Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?

Dec 14, 2:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.67%chance

321736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2235

76

Matter and energy are finite within our universe.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

341512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

805

Will renewable energy completely replace fossil fuels by 2040?

Jan 12, 12:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10%chance

141000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

971

How much of the United State's energy will be produced by fossil fuels in 2040?

Sep 4, 6:44 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30%chance

17577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

710

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.52%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

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