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Prediction markets for Energy

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1654063

OptionProbability

Other

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

58

41

1

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Dec 13, 1:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.03%chance

4214355

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3608

700

What percentage of US energy will be produced by each source in 2050?

Jun 27, 8:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

346608

OptionProbability

Solar

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

Wind

Coal

Geothermal

Hydroelectric

Biomass

Fusion

Other

33

20

14

11

5

4

4

3

3

3

1

Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?

Oct 20, 9:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.17%chance

655642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

956

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

273075

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2025

2024

2023

39

33

20

11

8

7

6

4

Will primary energy consumption in the US decrease by 2050?

Jan 26, 6:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.73%chance

182350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

964

Will any city >50k have energy "too cheap to meter" by 2035?

Aug 2, 2:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.24%chance

121930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

955

Matter and energy are finite within our universe.

Mar 25, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

52%chance

341512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1158

805

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will 2 more parties claim to have achieved net gains in fusion energy by 2026?

Dec 14, 2:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

60.99%chance

29663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

581

Will >50% of total allocated funding to clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act be gutted by 2028?

Jul 16, 5:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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