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Prediction markets for Energy and Materials

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

11.96%chance

192443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

369

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

211918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

238

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

812

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

51

30

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will any non-state group detonate a nuclear weapon, successfully killing at least 1 person, before 2040?

May 2, 6:17 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.88%chance

6227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

37

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

48.19%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?

Jul 14, 7:07 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

39.5%chance

556

OptionProbability

YES

NO

265

222

Will silicon carbide be in widespread use as a neutron moderator before 2100?

Jun 15, 12:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

71

69

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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