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Prediction markets for Energy and Utilities

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2025?

Jul 26, 2:05 AMSep 2, 3:59 AM

104204

OptionProbability

30 GW to 45 GW

<30 GW

45 GW to 60 GW

>75 GW

60 GW to 75 GW

49

37

7

4

3

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

By 2050, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Feb 21, 8:25 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10%chance

171308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

972

Will nuclear propulsion be used in any spacecraft before 2050?

Jan 20, 4:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

111058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

125

How much utility-scale solar power will the US install in 2026?

Feb 14, 3:41 AMMay 1, 3:59 AM

6910

OptionProbability

30 GW to 45 GW

<30 GW

45 GW to 60 GW

60 GW to 75 GW

>75 GW

54

21

9

9

7

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.52%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar PV be less than $20/MWh by 2030?

Dec 18, 1:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.64%chance

12516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

70

What year will the cost of solar energy drop to 2 cents/kWh?

Mar 30, 2:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7426

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2029-2030

2027-2028

2025-2026

2026-2027

2030-2031

2031-2032

2024-2025

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

69

12

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Alcoa's aluminum segment 2026 production exceeds 2.3 Mt (2,300 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.24%chance

9400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

☀️ 🏭 When will the US meet the goal of 2¢/kWh for utility-scale photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 3:52 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10221

OptionProbability

2028-2030

2025-2027

Beyond 2030 (or never)

Before the end of 2024

38

26

21

15

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