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Top stories

Executive Orders

US Domestic Policy

HHS Halts Nuclear Workers’ Illness Reviews, Leaving Compensation Claims Stalled

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Energy Department

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

15.42%chance

168627142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234211

42697

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.49%chance

215388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3796

264

Will the UK Government reverse its current stance by approving at least one new North Sea oil & gas licence in 2026?

Mar 28, 8:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

143089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

244

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

273083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

758

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st

Jul 17, 9:29 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

12207

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

73

US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before November 1st

Sep 10, 6:30 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

46.09%chance

6113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

☀️ 🏡 When will the US meet the goal of 5¢/kWh for residential photovoltaics?

Dec 7, 4:21 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM

5104

OptionProbability

2028-2030

Beyond 2030 (or never)

2025-2027

Before the end of 2024

42

30

22

6

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