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Energy Department News

Executive Orders

US Domestic Policy

HHS Halts Nuclear Workers’ Illness Reviews, Leaving Compensation Claims Stalled

3

1 year ago

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

16.52%chance

163614986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224803

44483

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.49%chance

215388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3796

264

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.76%chance

273028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

730

U.S. tests/uses nuclear weapon during Trump's presidency?

Nov 3, 11:51 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

11.12%chance

241074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030?

Oct 30, 2:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

18492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will the DOE Hydrogen Shot Succeed in Reducing the Price of Renewable Hydrogen to $1/kg by 2030?

May 22, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.58%chance

13469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

879

What year will the cost of solar energy drop to 2 cents/kWh?

Mar 30, 2:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7427

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2029-2030

2027-2028

2024-2025

2025-2026

2026-2027

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

69

12

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?

Jan 20, 8:15 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

74.21%chance

580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

170

59

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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