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Top stories

US Power Bills Surge 10% in 2025 on Tariffs, AI Data Center Demand

US Power Bills Surge 10% in 2025 on Tariffs, AI Data Center Demand

Authors

12

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Energy Innovation

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26%chance

7316447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

985

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?

Jan 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

221119

OptionProbability

The Way of Kings by Brandon Sanderson

Merchant Magician by John Champaign

The Road by Cormac McCarthy

(The books you will rate 5 stars)

The Player of Games by Iain M. Banks

Crime and Punishment

Catch-22 by Joseph Heller

Lord of Light by Roger Zelazny

Exhalation by Ted Chiang

Hyperion by Dan Simmons

War with the Newts

Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan

Great Gatsby

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky

Existential Kink by Carolyn Elliott

99

85

75

66

65

64

64

61

57

56

50

50

43

41

19

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

14895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

570

Will the levelized cost of electricity from advanced nuclear be less than $60/MWh by 2030 (in the US)?

Dec 18, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

178

What ARK's 2030 predictions about energy storage will turn true?

Mar 23, 3:55 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles

2030 Sales of batteries ≥ 600b

There will be around 100m robotaxis

Robotaxis will cost around $0.5/miles

≥74m EV sold in 2030

50

50

41

34

24

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

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