Energy Management News

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

25163138

OptionVotes

YES

23558

4245

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2364892

OptionProbability

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Other

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

2124

894

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

85%chance

434389

OptionVotes

YES

1908

644

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

231971

OptionVotes

YES

1119

270

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

YES

1057

918

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

231701

OptionVotes

YES

1734

365

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

YES

1132

819

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

Feb 6, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

25.46%chance

31825

OptionVotes

YES

1038

812

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Oct 3, 11:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.57%chance

5333

OptionVotes

YES

10062

9455

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Which promised metric will donut battery fail to deliver on.

Mar 22, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:03 PM

11321

OptionProbability

Energy density (400 Wh/kg)

Charge cycle lifespan (100,000)

Cost (Lower cost than lithium-ion batteries)

Promised production volume

Uses only abundant materials without rare elements

Charge speed (Five-minute full charge)

Performance in real-world vehicle conditions

Fire safety (No thermal runaway in extreme conditions)

Safe full discharge capability

Temperature stability (99% capacity retention at -30°C, 99% capacity retention above 100°C)

No active cooling requirement

Geopolitically safe supply chain

Flexible custom shapes and geometries

Energy Management News

Prediction markets for Energy Management

Prediction markets for Energy Management

Prediction markets for Energy Management

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Is solving fusion harder than finding a room temperature superconductor?

By Dec 31, 2035, will any nuclear fusion power plant have delivered at least 100 MW of net electrical power, 30 day ave.

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Which promised metric will donut battery fail to deliver on.

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