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Prediction markets for Energy Resources

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.92%chance

22148695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16006

6248

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5%chance

262119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

949

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

819

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.07%chance

271296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1313

876

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.94%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

960

Will 2026 nickel production from PT Weda Bay Nickel exceed 42 million wet metric tonnes on December 31, 2027?

Mar 4, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:04 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

Will 2026 nickel production from PT Weda Bay Nickel exceed 30 million wet metric tonnes on December 31, 2027?

Mar 4, 3:04 PMDec 31, 3:04 PM

40.98%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Indonesia primary aluminum production exceed 1 Mt as of October 2027?

May 4, 5:16 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

92

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