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Prediction markets for Energy Resources

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

24%chance

538570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.72%chance

54859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10466

9555

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 21, 11:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

412469

OptionProbability

Other

NATO versus ( Russia + China )

( NATO + Russia ) versus China

( NATO + China ) versus Russia

52

25

17

6

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Mar 16, 11:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

52.64%chance

361361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1132

819

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25%chance

271267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

906

Will we/AI figure out a way to break time-translation symmetry that allows the violation of the conservation of energy?

Mar 15, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.26%chance

18788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

954

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will 2026 nickel production from PT Weda Bay Nickel exceed 42 million wet metric tonnes on December 31, 2027?

Mar 4, 3:05 PMDec 31, 3:04 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

Will Indonesia primary aluminum production exceed 1 Mt as of October 2027?

May 4, 5:16 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

68.86%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

92

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