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Prediction markets for Energy Security

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

who will win the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary elections?

Jul 23, 2:49 PMSep 6, 10:59 PM

5143

OptionProbability

Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)

Conservative (Høyre)

Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet)

Other

Centre Party (Senterpartiet)

71

15

6

5

4

Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?

May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.51%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Reliable Commercial Roof Repairs & Metal Roofers

Aug 2, 9:17 AMDec 31, 9:16 AM

44.8%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Premier Michigan Golf Resorts & Vacation Escapes

Aug 2, 7:52 AMDec 31, 7:50 AM

44.8%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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