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Prediction markets for Energy Storage

Will a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) for electricity generation be operating in Australia by Jan 1 2035?

Aug 4, 2:58 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

23.41%chance

271172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

913

Battery fire causes major app outage in 2026?

Nov 26, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.07%chance

9526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

247

40

Thermal decomposition battery commercialized by 2050

Sep 13, 3:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.28%chance

13428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

971

Energy storage technology of new cars sold in the EU in 2034

Apr 16, 9:13 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11258

OptionProbability

Battery Electric

Plug in hybrid

Hybrid electric

Petrol

Diesel

Hydrogen

Other

48

36

6

3

2

2

2

More than 5% of Swedish single family houses will have their own energy storage units installed by 2030

Jun 1, 10:36 AMJan 1, 11:36 AM

17.07%chance

8220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

117

Will global vanadium production (mine + co-product, contained V) in 2027 be at least 140,000 tonnes of V?

Nov 26, 5:36 AMMar 29, 10:59 PM

48.19%chance

5159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

US battery energy storage doubles over 2025–2029?

Nov 30, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

6151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

44

What will be true about solid-state batteries in 2030?

Mar 7, 12:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8148

OptionProbability

They will be used in >10% of VTOLs

They will be the EV standard

They will cost less than 1000$ for a 200km EV

More than 1Twh will be manufactured annually

52

45

30

30

Will flow batteries be the most popular method of grid-scale energy storage before 2030?

Aug 31, 3:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.75%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

62

China achieves over 180 GW of new-type energy storage capacity by end of 2027?

Nov 26, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.25%chance

335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

What ARK's 2030 predictions about energy storage will turn true?

Mar 23, 3:55 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles

2030 Sales of batteries ≥ 600b

There will be around 100m robotaxis

Robotaxis will cost around $0.5/miles

≥74m EV sold in 2030

50

50

41

34

24

Will Torus energy storage be acquired by the end of 2027?

May 3, 3:16 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.96%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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