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Prediction markets for Engine

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

117369894

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

10

7

5

2

1

0

0

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

42.01%chance

21652996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14244

3337

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

14.9%chance

9915854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9978

4437

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1891

1299

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

41.49%chance

355985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

990

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:12 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

51.71%chance

15924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

725

Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100?

Jul 10, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

20716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1357

577

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

May 9, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:18 PM

69.28%chance

9705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3545

2647

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

832

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Sep 9, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.42%chance

12196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

966

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