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Prediction markets for Engine

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

116369729

OptionProbability

2040 or earlier

2050 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

17

17

17

8

7

5

4

1

0

0

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

42.22%chance

21651767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14214

3359

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

14.96%chance

9915848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9944

4443

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

45%chance

343655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

1061

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100?

Jul 10, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.47%chance

18651

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

600

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

May 9, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:18 PM

69.01%chance

7645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3517

2659

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

55.49%chance

6599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

896

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Sep 9, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.94%chance

11146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

951

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