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Prediction markets for Engine

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

Apr 1, 2:37 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

118369933

OptionProbability

2050 or earlier

2040 or earlier

2100 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

End of 2026 or earlier

2024, by Election Day

End of 2025 or earlier

20

19

19

10

9

8

4

2

0

0

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Mar 13, 5:29 PMMar 14, 2:59 PM

41.38%chance

21853778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14334

3273

Will Levels.fyi report that software engineer's salaries are lower in 2026 than they were in 2022?

Mar 16, 6:10 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

13.55%chance

10016681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10805

4300

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

777061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2141

1245

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61%chance

606855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

657

Will the BLS show growth in software engineer employment through 2029?

May 7, 5:45 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

36.41%chance

386361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1468

892

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Will software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries reach their 2021 levels by 2030?

Mar 28, 2:00 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

67.7%chance

191686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

770

Will there be genetically engineered catgirls by 2100?

Jul 10, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.55%chance

21727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

568

TN-1 Status for Canadian Software Engineers

May 9, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:18 PM

69.28%chance

9705

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3545

2647

Will Human Genetic Engineering in China create a "Hunan Being" before 2034?

Nov 12, 5:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.12%chance

6526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3023

2156

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Sep 9, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.63%chance

13221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

911

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