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Prediction markets for Engineered Arts

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

313549

OptionProbability

Carnegie Mellon University

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

University of Southern California

Rice university (new addition)

Northwestern (new addition!)

Williams college (new addition!)

UCLA

Cornell (new addition!)

Stanford

University of chicago

Princeton

Harvey mudd college

MIT (new addition!)

100

100

100

61

43

42

40

38

36

24

17

12

0

0

0

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

19.55%chance

353278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

439

[Carlini questions] A highly-popular SOTA AI system is supported by advertising

Mar 24, 2:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3814

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

94

93

93

92

4

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.09%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

61

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

Will the FC-31 have entered service in China by the end of 2030?

Jun 4, 3:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

68.45%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

34

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

Recommend me interesting job leads that fit my skillset and experience M5000 bounty, paying at least M500 per good lead

Dec 7, 7:40 PM

00

Will https://pcb.mit.edu/lectures/slides/IAP2026PCBClassLecture05.pdf still be up in 2032?

Mar 17, 5:42 AM

30

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