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Prediction markets for Engineered Arts

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.28%chance

266937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2672

374

Will SotA on SWE-Lancer (Diamond) reach 400K USD (80%) in 2025?

Apr 7, 2:51 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

20.43%chance

74874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9864

2540

will i drop out of college?

Aug 9, 10:38 AMJun 30, 2:59 PM

19.63%chance

353273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

440

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

[Carlini questions] A highly-popular SOTA AI system is supported by advertising

Mar 24, 2:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2464

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

59

59

50

46

41

Humanoid robot attends theatre performance to allow remote viewing by December 31, 2025

Nov 5, 7:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.61%chance

5321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

410

24

Best New Artist at the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Nov 17, 11:03 AMFeb 10, 5:59 AM

4275

OptionProbability

Olivia Dean

Katseye

Addison Rae

The Marias

Sombr

Leon Thomas

Alex Warren

Lola Young

60

14

6

4

4

4

4

4

Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?

Mar 30, 12:08 AMJul 1, 10:59 PM

41.04%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will the TAI TF Kaan have entered service in Turkey by the end of 2030?

Jun 14, 7:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

65.09%chance

576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

61

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

Will the FC-31 have entered service in China by the end of 2030?

Jun 4, 3:59 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

68.45%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

34

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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