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Environment News

By 2026 will any RL agent with learned causal models of its environment achieve superhuman performance on >=10 Atari environments?

Nov 15, 5:00 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.22%chance

162710

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

949

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2030?

Apr 1, 7:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

86.42%chance

361308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

874

Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?

Mar 19, 9:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.99%chance

291162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

787

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all Atari environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.94%chance

14898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

695

Will a single model achieve superhuman performance on all OpenAI gym environments by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.06%chance

14841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

692

Will "On the fly modification and generation of in game environment during play using an AI system" be possible in 2025?

Apr 1, 7:26 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.58%chance

26832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

923

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will Environment Health Perspectives (https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/) publish new journal articles again by July 1,2026?

Apr 30, 2:19 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

52%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Were Employee Deaths at Northvolt Sweden Environment-Related?

Sep 1, 3:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.88%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the Darwin Godel Machine be applied to one of Joseph Suarez's RL environments, like pufferfish by 2028?

May 31, 4:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.78%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Benchmark Gap #6: Once we have a transfer model that achieves human-level sample efficiency on many major RL environments, how many months will it be before we have a non-transfer model that achieves the same?

Feb 8, 10:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.97%chance

120

OptionProbability

NO

YES

270

270

Will @jsuarez pufferfish RL environment be used to calculate friston free energy OR complexity/accuracy/surprise by 2028

Jun 12, 2:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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