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Prediction markets for EOS

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.84%chance

22502116876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5192

3628

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148055

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?

Aug 12, 12:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4112058

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

500

Real U.S. spending on math R&D at higher-education institutions decrease by at least 25% by EOY 2028

Oct 3, 3:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.15%chance

510552

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20550

4866

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.14%chance

226652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12736

7852

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

75706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15368

6507

William Baude admitted to Supreme Court Bar by EOY2030?

Jun 7, 10:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.69%chance

124778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11353

8808

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Elon musk, JD Vance, or more than 2 members of Trump administration follow https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil?s=09 by EO

Nov 20, 4:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77%chance

6227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Will a movie based on the game R.E.P.O. be released before EO 2035?

May 1, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.46%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

EOS akainu vs prime sengoku

Mar 5, 8:10 PM

30

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