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Prediction markets for Epoch

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3768844

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

100

65

6

6

5

4

Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?

Apr 12, 6:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2439603

OptionProbability

90 - 100%

80 - 89.99%

50 - 59.99%

40 - 49.99%

60 - 69.99%

70 - 79.99%

10 - 19.99%

20 - 29.99%

30 - 39.99%

92

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3934507

OptionProbability

170-175

165-170

175-180

160-165

180-185

≥185

<155

155-160

31

26

20

7

7

6

1

1

Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)

Dec 8, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8532133

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

xAI

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Other

42

37

13

2

2

1

1

1

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?

Jan 27, 10:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.82%chance

5113818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1597

626

Which benchmarket will have the highest volume on MNX in 2026?

Apr 9, 5:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

611093

OptionProbability

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)

Other

ARC-AGI

Humanity's Last Exam (HLE)

SWE-Bench

FrontierMath

48

17

13

9

7

6

Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030?

Mar 9, 4:56 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

11.42%chance

202457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

705

When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)

Dec 23, 5:57 PMJan 31, 7:59 AM

241091

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

Later/Never

2025

93

8

5

3

1

Will a pre-2028 AI model release beat the Epoch general ECI record by at least 9 points?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.38%chance

2850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1850

857

Will a model from a China-headquartered lab hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

12.2%chance

2600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

889

Will the "Machinocene" be designated as a new geological epoch by 2060?

Mar 11, 12:41 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

13.02%chance

4439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

348

93

Will a Safe Superintelligence model hold the #1 Epoch general ECI rank before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

7.27%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

992

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