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Prediction markets for EpochAI

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35%chance

9228213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Which of FrontierMath and Humanity's Last Exam will be saturated (>80%) first?

Jan 24, 4:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4520420

OptionProbability

Humanity's Last Exam

FrontierMath

53

47

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

77.6%chance

101155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1861

537

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, in 2025?

Aug 9, 11:37 PMJan 2, 12:37 AM

34.34%chance

7756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

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