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Prediction markets for Equality
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
33.07%chance
5810769
OptionVotes
11052
10904
Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
73.06%chance
414059
OptionVotes
1578
660
OptionVotes
942
235
Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?
Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
33.45%chance
132531
OptionVotes
1411
709
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.01%chance
411153
OptionVotes
1265
930
Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?
Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM
25.12%chance
371105
OptionVotes
1247
887
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
78.22%chance
27922
OptionVotes
1346
871
Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?
Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
34.01%chance
17902
OptionVotes
1435
666
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
3.48%chance
14755
OptionVotes
1439
947
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
4.82%chance
14495
OptionVotes
1296
951
This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.
Jan 25, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.49%chance
9265
OptionVotes
216
100
Will US median household income equal at least half of average home values by 2035?
Nov 18, 1:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
59.2%chance
244
OptionVotes
128
96