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Top stories

UK Police Seek to Charge 60 Supporters of Banned Palestine Action

UK Police Seek to Charge 60 Supporters of Banned Palestine Action

Authors

10

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Equality

Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of 2026?

Sep 21, 6:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3012898

OptionProbability

S&P500 ≥ 6000

S&P500 ≥ 6500

S&P500 ≥ 7000

S&P500 ≥ 7500

S&P500 ≥ 8000

S&P500 ≥ 8500

S&P500 ≥ 9000

85

77

57

44

19

12

4

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.02%chance

414070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1589

631

Will 1+1 still be equal to 2 on Dec. 31, 9999?

Jun 20, 4:27 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

97.72%chance

162900

OptionVotes

NO

YES

898

236

Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?

Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.45%chance

132531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

709

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

421203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

930

Does a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?

Aug 10, 1:30 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

25.12%chance

371105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

887

Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?

Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.22%chance

27922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

871

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4.82%chance

14495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1296

951

First Year When NBA All-Star Game scoring is "normal" (less than or equal to 5 total points per minute)

Feb 19, 6:55 AMFeb 27, 5:59 AM

460

OptionProbability

2040+

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

62

20

9

9

Will US median household income equal at least half of average home values by 2035?

Nov 18, 1:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

59.2%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

96

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