ER News

Erudite Stock

Oct 26, 9:35 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

21431208530

OptionProbability

YES

3187

2703

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

349125780

OptionVotes

YES

2566

1866

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293239

OptionProbability

YES

2090

1762

Aella? Will Nick Deck 'er? (Aella-Decker 2025 hookup market)

May 4, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.02%chance

8654774

OptionVotes

YES

4886

205

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

325948

OptionProbability

Other

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Jan 4, 12:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.42%chance

41911

OptionProbability

YES

6494

4099

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Dec 31, 9:59 PMJan 1, 7:00 AM

55.59%chance

22689

OptionVotes

YES

2028

1960

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Mar 2, 5:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13234

OptionProbability

Other

Wang Yang

Ding Xuexiang

Li Qiang

Cai Qi

Wang Huning

Wang Yi

No one

Xi Jinping

Chen Jining

Huang Kunming

Li Xi

Hu Chunhua

Chen Min'er

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Jul 6, 5:14 PMJul 8, 3:59 AM

39.31%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Apr 18, 11:12 PMJan 1, 9:01 AM

54.47%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

130

112

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Oct 9, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

Dec 24, 2:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

ER News

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Prediction markets for ER

Erudite Stock

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Aella? Will Nick Deck 'er? (Aella-Decker 2025 hookup market)

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?

Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?

Who will be the next paramount leader of China?

Will Alexey guzey have a relationship with a thiel fellow, Atlas fellow, TKS'er, cockatoo, repligate, or Rochelle?

Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?

Will JLR (Jose Luis Ricon) date a TKS'er? (or TKS alum)

Is Sigil Wen the most wholesome TKS'er ever?

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