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Prediction markets for ES

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

15.42%chance

169627144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234213

42696

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.48%chance

17717380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3301

1379

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11%chance

286231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1299

934

Will RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?

Aug 7, 11:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.16%chance

65556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15218

6571

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.51%chance

452567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

1237

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

24.92%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1251

Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?

Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.59%chance

7575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6240

5801

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Dar es Salaam, Tanzania have a Metro System before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.62%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

How many U.S. teaching positions will LPI estimate were vacant or filled by teachers without full certification in 2027?

Aug 8, 5:31 AMAug 2, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

Under 400,000

400,000–424,999

425,000–449,999

450,000–474,999

475,000 or more

20

20

20

20

20

¿Es José Luis Ricón un marido trofeo?

Jun 30, 9:41 PM

00

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