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Prediction markets for ES

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

47119148

OptionProbability

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

100

1

0

0

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.64%chance

8323708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

1037

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.53%chance

15714816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2205

2197

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

442564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1234

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

46%chance

9399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2048

1952

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Dar es Salaam, Tanzania have a Metro System before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.62%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

¿Es José Luis Ricón un marido trofeo?

Jun 30, 9:41 PM

00

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