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Prediction markets for ES

In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)

May 1, 5:31 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

49171615

OptionProbability

Q1

Q4

Q2

Q3

100

2

0

0

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.86%chance

102117122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183691

54439

Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

22850019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15809

7952

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.89%chance

8624237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

1026

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.78%chance

17216760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

1649

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

442564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1234

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

46%chance

9399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2048

1952

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Dar es Salaam, Tanzania have a Metro System before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.62%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Es-ce que Anthony va devenir intelligent un jour ?

Mar 11, 6:43 PMDec 31, 6:42 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

¿Es José Luis Ricón un marido trofeo?

Jun 30, 9:41 PM

00

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