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Prediction markets for ES

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

26.45%chance

132156205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166745

59972

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

30.76%chance

9531424

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1072

By 2029, will an AI escape containment?

Feb 19, 7:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

58.17%chance

17416820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2741

1709

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.93%chance

286210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

946

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.51%chance

452567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

1237

Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027?

Dec 16, 2:36 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

24.92%chance

111709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3369

1251

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Which approach(es) will lead to a viable theory of quantum gravity?

Aug 3, 1:12 AMAug 3, 1:09 AM

2140

OptionProbability

Gravitational path integral of metric field

Gravitational path integral of gauge variables (e.g., spinfoam models)

Causal set

AdS/CFT

Canonical loop quantum gravity

Quantum geometrodynamics

Gravity is not subject quantum mechanics

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

Will Dar es Salaam, Tanzania have a Metro System before 2030?

Mar 20, 1:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.62%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Es-ce que Anthony va devenir intelligent un jour ?

Mar 11, 6:43 PMDec 31, 6:42 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

¿Es José Luis Ricón un marido trofeo?

Jun 30, 9:41 PM

00

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