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Will asteroid 2024 YR4 have an estimated 50% chance or greater of hitting Earth by December 31, 2026?

Feb 5, 3:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.62%chance

3519116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12658

79

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Aug 9, 11:38 PMAug 1, 11:37 PM

20.7%chance

233320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

ICE spends at least $25.5 billion in 2025? (budget estimate: $30 billion)

Jul 7, 4:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.97%chance

231844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

342

Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

May 27, 8:49 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

37.02%chance

331497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

749

Will "Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 2:49 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.6%chance

31066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

890

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.27%chance

81028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

907

Will total LLM or Agent provider revenue be more than 1T worldwide by best estimates, as of mid 2027?

Dec 26, 4:27 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

34.34%chance

6539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

723

Will the EA forum support users estimating values in posts and then supplying some kind of median, by 2030?

Oct 3, 10:37 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.63%chance

13471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

825

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 1% or less?

Feb 3, 4:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.27%chance

11293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

937

If Scott Alexander asks ACXers in 2030 to estimate what percent of people they follow on Twitter are secretly chatbots, will the median answer will be 5% or less?

Feb 3, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71%chance

11196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

988

Will "Hyperbolic model fits METR capabilities estim..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 10:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:09 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.82%chance

113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

998

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