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Eternal News

    Prediction markets for Eternal

    OptionProbability

    The Jews control at least one nation's government

    The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger

    Imane Khelif is intersex

    Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.

    Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)

    The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015

    DHMO in the water supply

    Dream faked the Manhunt videos

    Osama bin Laden didn't act alone

    Santa is rigged

    That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)

    √-1 isn't real

    Smartphones listen in on private conversations

    The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war

    Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others

    Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island

    Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation

    Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.

    Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices

    The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.

    Groundhog Day is rigged

    That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam

    Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers

    Gamergate was right

    The NBA rigs the draft lottery

    The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West

    Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)

    China was not genociding Uyghurs

    Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself

    Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.

    Annie Altman's abuse claims

    The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin

    John McAfee didn't kill himself

    At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents

    The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.

    An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

    There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips

    Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does

    Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations

    Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.

    FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war

    The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only

    The Clintons assasinated their rivals

    This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba

    Eliezer wrote The Erogamer

    The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)

    Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage

    Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA

    China made covid 19 in a lab

    Rory Stewart worked for MI6

    At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population

    Eating your veggies is bad for your health

    The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022

    The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.

    Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT

    As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator

    Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays

    My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.

    Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)

    @strutheo is @notrickspringfield

    Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.

    Dead Internet theory

    Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency

    Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.

    lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀

    The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship

    The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.

    Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen

    Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.

    The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent

    A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time

    Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars

    Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US

    ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.

    The CIA killed JFK

    Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.

    The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior

    The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth

    Sue Gray was a spy

    Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy

    We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.

    The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.

    Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)

    covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese

    The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop

    Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real

    Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.

    The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up

    Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election

    Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"

    "Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024

    Princess Diana was assassinated

    The NFL is rigged

    Jeffrey Epstein is still alive

    Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator

    US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily

    Harold Holt murdered

    Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle

    COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health

    A cure for cancer has already been found

    Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot

    South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023

    Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)

    The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws

    Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure

    Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem

    Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")

    Ogopogo is real

    QAnon

    Exercise is bad for your health

    A support network of close friendships is bad for your health

    Israel killed JFK

    Bush did 9/11

    Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)

    Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so

    carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming

    Allen Iverson invented A.I.

    The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around

    Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency

    Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice

    Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026

    Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)

    QR codes are satanic

    Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics

    The Hellenistic civilization invented USB

    Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese

    South Sudan has had nukes since 2023

    Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme

    Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.

    China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab

    Human didnt evolve from apes

    Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health

    Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension

    Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina

    Jerry Sandusky is innocent.

    Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight

    Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization

    Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic

    xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition

    @HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie

    Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s

    Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations

    Rationalussy isn't real.

    Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.

    Tupac is still alive in 2024

    Bielefeld does not exist

    The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen

    Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first

    The Mandella Effect in general is real

    The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab

    The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.

    US government is harboring aliens

    Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent

    Birds aren't real

    climate change isn't human caused

    Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil

    The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier

    Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP

    Climate change isn’t real

    The moon landing was fake

    The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024

    You personally live in Truman Show style captivity

    The Romance languages are not descended from Latin

    The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization

    The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.

    The illuminati runs the world

    *All* health care is net negative for health

    Q is Putin

    Michelle Obama is a man

    Brazilian money is not real

    Yeti is real or similar creature

    Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina

    The earth is a dodecahedron

    Skibidi Toilet is real

    It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears

    Africa isn't real

    HIV doesn’t cause AIDS

    Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team

    There is no female orgasm

    The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.

    The earth is flat

    *All* vaccines are net negative for health

    End of the world in 2012

    Earth is hollow

    Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.

    Finland isn't real

    Australia isn't real.

    5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on

    Nuclear weapons have never existed

    Flossing is bad for your health

    Brushing your teeth is bad for your health

    Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person

    The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.

    Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001

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    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2391

    746

    How will Manifold die?

    Jun 5, 7:19 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM
    723837

    OptionProbability

    Manifold is eternal

    They go bankrupt

    Other

    As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)

    Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death

    Not with a bang but a whimper

    People lose interest in it and stop using the site

    Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.

    Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website

    Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable

    Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance

    Shut down by the U.S. federal government

    A lover's quarrel

    Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama

    will be dyed into a zebra pattern in black and grey

    Outcompeted in the online marketplace

    Erotic auto-asphyxiation

    destroyed by great hwan empire

    Heat death

    with thunderous applause

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    OptionProbability

    A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

    F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

    I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

    B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

    G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

    C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

    D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

    E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

    H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

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    What is the one piece?

    Feb 26, 5:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    362882

    OptionProbability

    Knowledge about the Void Century

    Something else

    Ancient Weapon from the Void Century

    Bink's Sake

    Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world

    A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger

    The devil fruit tree

    Time travel device

    All Blue

    The rope seem in the logo

    Nothing

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    18

    Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 9595?

    Jun 7, 3:24 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    18%chance
    121852

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    470

    121

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1477

    677

    Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

    Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM
    36.02%chance
    21646

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    986

    982

    God Stock (Eternal)

    Nov 17, 1:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM
    49.19%chance
    21550

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1007

    983

    What's true about the beginning of the universe?

    Aug 9, 5:43 PMAug 10, 5:32 PM
    9170

    OptionProbability

    The beginning is fundamentally unknowable with any current and future observations.

    The universe arises out of quantum tunneling from ‘nothing’, and the process can be described by a Lorentzian path integral (e.g., Vilenkin's proposal).

    The universe is eternal and has no beginning.

    There is change in spacetime signature (e.g., Hartle-Hawking proposal of Euclidean to Lorentzian signature)

    The observable universe budded off as a baby universe from a black hole.

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    What is true about cosmic inflation?

    Sep 18, 11:51 PMOct 8, 11:59 PM
    5139

    OptionProbability

    The eternal inflation + multiverse scenario applies to our universe.

    Starobinsky (R^2) inflation took place in our universe.

    Bouncing/cyclic universe scenario is correct and inflation is false.

    Cosmic inflation did not take place in our universe.

    Chaotic inflation took place in our universe.

    Single-field inflation will be ruled out; only multi-field inflation fits the data.

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