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Top stories

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Authors

25

3 months ago

Prediction markets for EU Commission

[Glimt] Will Russian gas supplies resume through the Nord Stream pipelines in 2025?

Jan 16, 7:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.4%chance

1410834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8379

119

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.38%chance

268441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

When will the EU adopt the Cyber Resilience Act?

Jul 13, 5:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51170

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

Ongoing in 2027

Abandoned before 2027

2023

86

8

2

2

1

0

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?

Feb 4, 10:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

4164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

97

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3160

OptionProbability

Proposal rejected/not introduced in EU parliament by 2028

2026

2025

2027

2028

25

20

18

18

18

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

107

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