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Prediction markets for EU Commission
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
69
20
15
15
15
10
8
8
7
5
5
[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?
Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.82%chance
2913425
OptionVotes
13323
3371
Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029
Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM
7.53%chance
308572
OptionVotes
3509
286
EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?
Jan 18, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.68%chance
164526
OptionVotes
3466
288
Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?
Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.7%chance
43313
OptionVotes
2408
415
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.39%chance
131949
OptionVotes
2439
410
OptionVotes
314
32
When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?
Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
3369
OptionProbability
33
27
24
16
1
Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?
Feb 4, 10:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
76.76%chance
5264
OptionVotes
197
58
OptionProbability
76
63
59
54
41
34
34
30
17
10
Will the US use access to AI as leverage in trade negotiations with the EU before 2028?
Jun 27, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
65.93%chance
476
OptionVotes
139
72
Will Project Bromo (the Airbus–Leonardo–Thales space merger) be completed by the end of 2027?
May 19, 1:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
52.87%chance
225
OptionVotes
106
94