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Top stories

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Russia Damages EU Office in Kyiv; Ukrainian Drones Torch Two Russian Refineries

Authors

25

8 months ago

Prediction markets for EU Commission

Who will sit on the Board of Peace?

Jan 20, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:11 AM

3619938

OptionProbability

Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister)

Viktor Orbán (Hungarian Prime Minister)

Tô Lâm (Vietnamese Communist Party Secretary General)

Javier Milei (Argentine President)

Santiago Peña (Paraguayan President)

Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Turkish President)

Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistani Prime Minister)

Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State)

Steve Witkoff (US Special Envoy)

Jared Kushner (Trump's son-in-law)

Marc Rowan (Finance billionaire)

Ajay Banga (President of World Bank)

Robert Gabriel (US Security Adviser)

Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgarian diplomat)

Alexander Lukashenko (Belarusian President)

Benjamin Netanyahu (Israeli Prime Minister)

Edi Rama (Albanian Prime Minister)

Narendra Modi (Indian Prime Minister)

Vladimir Putin (Russian President)

Anthony Albanese (Australian Prime Minister)

Giorgia Meloni (Italian Prime Minister)

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazilian President)

Xi Jinping (Chinese Communist Party Secretary General)

Mark Carney (Canadian Prime Minister)

Ursula von der Leyen (EU Commission President)

Emmanuel Macron (French President)

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

95

93

91

34

31

20

14

13

7

6

5

4

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.03%chance

235958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5866

4797

EU activates Trade Bazooka against the US before 2027?

Jan 18, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.13%chance

163937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3155

317

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

610

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.97%chance

61120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

67

Will the energy biding zones for either Germany or France be split by 2030?

Feb 15, 7:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

1750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Will Hungary still be a voting member of the EU European Commission in 2035?

Feb 4, 10:37 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

76.76%chance

5264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

58

Which parties will be part of the next Italian government?

Jan 7, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

3161

OptionProbability

Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)

Forza Italia

Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)

League (Lega)

Noi Moderati

Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)

Action - Italia Viva (Azione/Italia Viva)

Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS)

Più Europa

Free and Equal (Liberi e Uguali)

76

59

59

54

41

34

34

30

17

10

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3160

OptionProbability

Proposal rejected/not introduced in EU parliament by 2028

2026

2025

2027

2028

25

20

18

18

18

Will the US-EU Data Privacy Framework be in force on the 1st of January 2028?

Aug 12, 3:07 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

45.75%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

107

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