EU Parliament News

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.05%chance

52982

OptionVotes

YES

3409

1209

What will be true about the European Union before 2040? [add responses]

Jun 22, 9:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

171774

OptionProbability

EU Parliament gets right of Legislative Initiative

Broad consensus on CMU (Capital Markets Union) completion

EU institution controlling an army of over 20,000 personnel

EU-wide UBI

S&D becoming the largest group in the EP

EU Parliament gaining full co-decision powers on all EU legislation

(to be resolved N/A)

A new Treaty will reform the EU constitution (as Lisbon or Maastricht Treaties did)

Abolition of unanimity in foreign policy

Direct election of the Commission President by the population

At least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists

EU overtaking the USA in GDP (PPP)

EU achieving net-zero carbon emissions

Abolished Daylight Saving Time

EU institution controlling an army of over 100,000 personnel

Nuclear weapons under the control of an EU institution

EU-wide minimum wage

EU finances more than 50% of its budget from self-collected taxes

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

May 13, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.02%chance

201133

OptionVotes

YES

1559

915

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171041

OptionProbability

7-10

4-6

11-14

>14

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

Jul 23, 3:49 AMDec 31, 10:33 PM

8277

OptionProbability

An anti-corruption protest with at least 10,000 attendees will take place in a Ukrainian city in July 2025

The law will be repealed or annulled in full by the end of 2025

Ukraine will receive a lower score in the 2026 edition of the Corruption Perceptions Index than in the 2024 edition

The European Commission will issue a formal statement expressing opposition to the law in July 2025

Donald Trump will describe Volodymyr Zelensky as "corrupt" in July 2025

Volodymyr Zelensky's trust rating will fall below 50% in a poll published by KIIS, Rating or Razumkov in 2025

The Ukrainian parliament's trust rating will fall below 10% in a poll published by Razumkov in 2025

The New York Times will publish an editorial criticising Volodymyr Zelensky by the end of August 2025

100

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

Dec 16, 10:17 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3160

OptionProbability

Proposal rejected/not introduced in EU parliament by 2028

2026

2025

2027

2028

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.05%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

128

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

133

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Mar 12, 8:03 PMDec 31, 1:00 AM

67.14%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?

Jun 12, 5:14 PMDec 31, 6:12 PM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

120

EU Parliament News

Prediction markets for EU Parliament

Prediction markets for EU Parliament

Prediction markets for EU Parliament

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

What will be true about the European Union before 2040? [add responses]

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

What will happen after President Zelensky signs bill №12414 into law?

When will the first company be officially registered under the EU Inc. framework (28th Regime)?

UK abolishes birthright citizenship for children of non-settled parents before EOY2030?

Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?

Italy judicial reform: Will the EU Commission's 2027 Rule of Law Report include recommendations on this reform?

Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?

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