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Prediction markets for EURØP

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38121725

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

22

21

19

18

15

Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?

Aug 27, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.38%chance

3614218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6402

156

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

May 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47%chance

478638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will the UK be the best performing country by GDP growth in Europe in 2028

Feb 27, 11:45 AMDec 27, 3:59 PM

14.49%chance

326484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

957

Will a nation outside of Europe or South America make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?

Aug 9, 1:31 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

12%chance

284124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

798

Will the Citroen e-C3 sell more than 150,000 units in Europe in 2025?

Jan 21, 10:36 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.07%chance

202954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3227

56

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

Mar 29, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.96%chance

182195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1885

530

Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup come from Europe?

Aug 6, 2:12 PMJul 20, 3:59 AM

72.24%chance

201297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

894

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

30.16%chance

5896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

657

Will Vladimir Putin ever visit Europe?

Jan 16, 4:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.39%chance

15636

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

672

Will an intercity highspeed / Maglev (>500 km/h) passenger train operate in Europe before 2035?

Jul 27, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

18536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

938

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have gotten a western education [in US or Europe (EU)]?

Oct 25, 7:40 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

31.41%chance

16398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

930

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