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Prediction markets for EURØP

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?

Aug 27, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.46%chance

3814231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6300

159

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

May 18, 9:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.83%chance

488888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

764

Will the UK be the best performing country by GDP growth in Europe in 2028

Feb 27, 11:45 AMDec 27, 3:59 PM

5.67%chance

337984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2580

810

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.08%chance

233259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3165

316

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

Mar 29, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.27%chance

262759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

636

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will Vladimir Putin ever visit Europe?

Jan 16, 4:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.39%chance

16656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

672

Will an intercity highspeed / Maglev (>500 km/h) passenger train operate in Europe before 2035?

Jul 27, 3:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

18536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1332

938

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have gotten a western education [in US or Europe (EU)]?

Oct 25, 7:40 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

33.88%chance

18478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

859

Will US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?

Mar 7, 5:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.54%chance

9283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

968

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