European AI News

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.32%chance

5110194

OptionVotes

YES

1060

902

Accountability: European Commission - Will the EC deliver on these goals and promises?

Jul 19, 1:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41076

OptionProbability

Propose a 90% emission-reduction target for 2040 in a European Climate Law

Set up a President's Youth Advisory Board with young people from all Member States

Expand the Rule of Law Report to include a Single Market dimension and accession countries

Propose a European AI Research Council (CERN for AI)

Create a pan-European investment platform for affordable and sustainable housing with the European Investment Bank

Propose a new European Biotech Act

By the end of the mandate, energy prices will on average be lower (inflation-adjusted)

More than double Europol's staff over time

The next long-term budget will include a regime of conditionality for the Rule of Law

Triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000

Respond to all of Parliament's Article 225 resolutions with legislative proposals

Implement a right to disconnect

Hold European Citizens' Panels every year

100

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Jul 29, 2:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

15732

OptionVotes

YES

239

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

20%chance

6401

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.95%chance

14365

OptionVotes

YES

313

151

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Oct 22, 8:52 AMJan 2, 12:00 PM

32.85%chance

12312

OptionVotes

YES

207

108

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

105

103

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.32%chance

4154

OptionVotes

YES

218

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Will any European or American airline order the COMAC C919 before 2030?

Dec 15, 12:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

45.86%chance

544

OptionVotes

YES

109

European AI News

Prediction markets for European AI

Prediction markets for European AI

Prediction markets for European AI

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Accountability: European Commission - Will the EC deliver on these goals and promises?

Will generative artificial intelligence be banned in at least one G7 country by the end of 2026?

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?

[Metaculus] Using AI tools as part of diagnostic process considered best practice in clinical psychology before 2029?

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will any European or American airline order the COMAC C919 before 2030?

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