European AI News

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

45%chance

6012466

OptionVotes

YES

1187

785

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Feb 24, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.91%chance

79783

OptionVotes

YES

4845

206

Will Elon Musk cease to exist before the EU does?

Dec 11, 10:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.31%chance

271325

OptionVotes

YES

179

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

1639

610

Accountability: European Commission - Will the EC deliver on these goals and promises?

Jul 19, 1:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41076

OptionProbability

Propose a 90% emission-reduction target for 2040 in a European Climate Law

Set up a President's Youth Advisory Board with young people from all Member States

Expand the Rule of Law Report to include a Single Market dimension and accession countries

Propose a European AI Research Council (CERN for AI)

Create a pan-European investment platform for affordable and sustainable housing with the European Investment Bank

Propose a new European Biotech Act

By the end of the mandate, energy prices will on average be lower (inflation-adjusted)

More than double Europol's staff over time

The next long-term budget will include a regime of conditionality for the Rule of Law

Triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000

Respond to all of Parliament's Article 225 resolutions with legislative proposals

Implement a right to disconnect

Hold European Citizens' Panels every year

100

When will the Finnish citizens’ initiative on Digital Independence reach 50,000 signatures?

Feb 22, 6:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

71027

OptionProbability

Before Sep 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Mar 2026

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

32.89%chance

6421

OptionVotes

YES

143

Will any European or American airline order the COMAC C919 before 2030?

Dec 15, 12:41 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

14.66%chance

7194

OptionVotes

YES

259

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

179

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

180

European AI News

Prediction markets for European AI

Prediction markets for European AI

Prediction markets for European AI

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Will Antoine Greizmann play a competitive match for Orlando City before EOY 2026

Will Elon Musk cease to exist before the EU does?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Accountability: European Commission - Will the EC deliver on these goals and promises?

When will the Finnish citizens’ initiative on Digital Independence reach 50,000 signatures?

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Will any European or American airline order the COMAC C919 before 2030?

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

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