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Prediction markets for European authorities

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

192719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

291192

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

20

Which species will get the first regulator-approved drug with lifespan extension as the indication?

Oct 1, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6680

OptionProbability

Dogs

None before 2035

Another species

Humans

41

25

21

12

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.95%chance

18382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

US and EU form transatlantic superstate by 2050?

Apr 30, 8:44 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

9%chance

9297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

32

Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?

Jul 29, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will the US attack European AI/compute providers before 2035?

Jun 21, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

3112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

Will Croatia forcefully draft its citizens before 2060

Mar 11, 8:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.31%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Will all mRNA type vaccines be abolished and pulled off market before 2040?

Oct 13, 4:43 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

17.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

98

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