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Prediction markets for European authorities

Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMAug 1, 10:29 AM

6.86%chance

10512210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

27

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

162498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

May 13, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.02%chance

201133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1559

915

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.63%chance

16769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

8485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

48

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

15340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

US and EU form transatlantic superstate by 2050?

Apr 30, 8:44 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

9%chance

9297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

32

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

8221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

73

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

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