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Prediction markets for European authorities

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

153309

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

75

75

62

56

0

0

Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?

Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

16.74%chance

162498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

Mar 16, 9:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.18%chance

16366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

US and EU form transatlantic superstate by 2050?

Apr 30, 8:44 AMJan 2, 10:59 PM

9%chance

9297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

327

32

NATO dissolves by 2028

Jan 6, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.56%chance

8221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

73

Will Iceland vote to open negotiations with the EU?

Jul 6, 11:59 AMAug 29, 10:59 PM

67.87%chance

11211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

69

Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027?

Jul 29, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

5169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

199

50

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

17

Setagaya Family Murder Solved by EOY2030?

Jun 22, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Which of these following things will happen in the ballon 2025/2026 d'or ranking

Jul 23, 8:37 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

2 french players in the top 5

At least 7 PSG players nominated

The top 3 contains players from 3 different leagues

The top 10 contains at least 3 midfielders

At least 6 defenders are nominated

50

50

50

50

50

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