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Prediction markets for European government

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.38%chance

268441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3830

261

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

51

26

7

7

4

2

2

Will universal basic income be implemented nationwide in a G7 country by the end of 2028?

Oct 29, 5:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.35%chance

14588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

356

108

Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Apr 2, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.41%chance

11463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will Canada become a member of the EU before 2040?

Mar 22, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

14371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?

Apr 14, 1:10 AMDec 3, 12:00 PM

16.88%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

334

106

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Canada accept EU, Japan, or Korea car safety standards?

May 1, 12:01 PMMay 2, 11:56 AM

25.45%chance

371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

58

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