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Prediction markets for European government

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.94%chance

6810620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

515

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1639

610

Will any European country initiate withdrawal from NATO by the end of 2027?

Jul 10, 1:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.69%chance

19596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

945

Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Apr 2, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.65%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?

Feb 2, 8:56 PMFeb 1, 10:59 PM

9%chance

15485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

31

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will the government of a European country propose to withdraw from NATO before August 1, 2026?

Apr 7, 11:50 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

6201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will MSFT acquire/merge with OpenAI by the end of 2027?

Apr 1, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

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