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Prediction markets for European government

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1%chance

3619325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.03%chance

518941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

784

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Next Danish Election: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read description]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

4532

OptionProbability

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Green Left

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Social Democrats & Moderates

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

80

76

57

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

28

26

24

21

19

15

Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Apr 2, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.13%chance

15516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

9166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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