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Prediction markets for European government

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1.61%chance

3919397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7810

128

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

599565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1397

717

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.27%chance

288492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3871

259

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.79%chance

271368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

867

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

680

When will Canada break apart?

May 1, 5:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12634

OptionProbability

No breakup / none of these years

Between 2035 and 2039

Between 2040 and 2044

Between 2030 and 2034

Between 2025 and 2029

67

11

9

8

5

Will universal basic income be implemented nationwide in a G7 country by the end of 2028?

Oct 29, 5:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.35%chance

14588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

356

108

Will Switzerland become a member of the EU before 2040?

Apr 2, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.42%chance

16518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Canada accept EU, Japan, or Korea car safety standards?

May 1, 12:01 PMMay 2, 11:56 AM

24%chance

6120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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