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Prediction markets for European governments

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.54%chance

268391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

265

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

143249

OptionProbability

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

75

75

62

56

35

0

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

NSC wins seats in 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 4, 8:08 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

8596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Will universal basic income be implemented nationwide in a G7 country by the end of 2028?

Oct 29, 5:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.17%chance

12562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

586

82

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

Jul 29, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15548

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of EU/US government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.93%chance

10268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

960

Will Norway become a member of the EU before 2040?

Apr 2, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.1%chance

8156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will Finland legalize euthanasia by 2030?

Mar 5, 12:56 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

60%chance

980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

234

191

Canada accept EU, Japan, or Korea car safety standards?

May 1, 12:01 PMMay 2, 11:56 AM

25.45%chance

371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

58

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