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Prediction markets for European Parliament elections

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

92.37%chance

354007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

348

29

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

171041

OptionProbability

7-10

4-6

<4

11-14

>14

38

31

29

2

0

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

23942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

54

When will Volodymyr Zelenskyy announce national elections?

Mar 2, 1:04 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

8247

OptionProbability

Announces elections contingent on ceasefire only

July 1 - December 31, 2026

January 1 - June 30, 2027

July 1, 2027 or later

Other

Never announces national elections

March 15 - April 15, 2026

April 15 - May 4, 2026 (before martial law expires)

May 4 - June 30, 2026

Before March 15, 2026

45

7

7

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will any country use a new voting system for the 2029 EU election?

Jan 25, 7:56 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

49.76%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

133

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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