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Prediction markets for European Parliament elections

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will Marine Le Pen be a candidate in the 2027 French presidential election?

May 20, 8:13 AMMar 19, 11:59 PM

13.04%chance

14975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

How many EU countries will have far-right governments in 2027?

Jan 2, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14956

OptionProbability

<4

4-6

7-10

11-14

>14

35

35

28

2

0

Next Danish Election: Which pairs of parties will govern together or be in opposition together [read description]

Mar 19, 8:54 PMJan 11, 7:59 AM

4532

OptionProbability

Social Democrats & Danish Social Liberal Party

Liberal Alliance & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Green Left

Moderates & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Venstre

Social Democrats & Moderates

Venstre & Moderates

Venstre & Green Left

Venstre & Liberal Alliance

Venstre & Conservative People's Party

Venstre & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Liberal Alliance

Moderates & Conservative People's Party

Green Left & Danish Social Liberal Party

Conservative People's Party & Danish Social Liberal Party

Moderates & Green Left

Green Left & Liberal Alliance

Green Left & Conservative People's Party

Liberal Alliance & Danish Social Liberal Party

Social Democrats & Conservative People's Party

Social Democrats & Liberal Alliance

80

76

57

54

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

28

26

24

21

19

15

Ukraine holds elections in 2026?

Dec 29, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.66%chance

6332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

70

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Will any country use a new voting system for the 2029 EU election?

Jan 25, 7:56 PMMay 1, 9:59 PM

49.76%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

133

Will a party other than PiS and PO win any national election in Poland by 2040?

Apr 7, 9:47 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

66.34%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

140

Labour initiates legislation to reform or replace Human Rights Act before next election?

Jul 21, 9:50 AMAug 15, 12:00 AM

37.02%chance

585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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