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Top stories

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Discuss Nuclear Talks and Sanctions with UK, France, Germany, EU on Friday

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Discuss Nuclear Talks and Sanctions with UK, France, Germany, EU on Friday

Authors

9

10 months ago

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

France, Germany and UK Trigger UN 'Snapback' to Restore Iran Sanctions

Authors

73

10 months ago

Prediction markets for European powers

Twitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates

Mar 9, 5:13 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

155283

OptionProbability

July 1 2033

July 1 2034

July 1 2032

July 1 2035

July 1 2036

July 1 2037

July 1 2038

July 1 2039

July 1 2040

Jan 1 2031

July 1 2031

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

Jan 1 2030

July 1 2030

Jan 1 2028

July 1 2028

July 1 2027

April 1 2027

Jan 1 2027

Oct 1 2026

July 1 2026

July 1 2025

Oct 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

April 1 2026

56

56

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

49

48

48

48

48

45

45

42

41

39

30

18

0

0

0

0

Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?

Mar 29, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.27%chance

262759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will Trump tariff European countries over Greenland?

Jan 17, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.79%chance

281832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

31

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?

May 13, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.02%chance

201133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1559

915

EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?

Mar 23, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.36%chance

15647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

232

Which will be the first 6th generation fighter to enter service with a country's military?

Apr 6, 7:46 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7419

OptionProbability

Boeing F-47

SAC J-50 (provisional name)

CAC J-36 (provisional name)

Other

F/A-XX (USN)

GCAP

FCAS

PAK DP

36

17

15

13

11

8

0

0

Will Poland leave European Union before 2030?

Mar 14, 9:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.86%chance

11362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will there be another nation-wide blackout in Spain by 2027?

Jan 1, 2:38 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

6245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

354

113

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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