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Prediction markets for EV

Will the Federal EV tax credit be repealed in 2025?

Nov 9, 7:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

87.72%chance

2724695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2672

374

Will EV batteries cost less than 1000 USD in 2030?

Jan 22, 1:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

17%chance

5312798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

579

🚘 When will global EV sales exceed those of vehicles with internal combustion engines?

Feb 4, 10:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

604255

OptionProbability

Before 2030

2030 - 2040

Never / 2040 or after

50

50

1

China's public EV charging capacity exceeds 350M kilowatts by 2027?

Nov 29, 1:57 AMFeb 29, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

101306

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2182

458

Will "New Endorsements for “If Anyone Builds It, Ev..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 18, 5:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.78%chance

31000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

893

Will I be able to summon a robotaxi in NYC before I can buy an EV with a all-solid-state battery?

Jan 25, 8:08 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

79.52%chance

21918

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

946

Slate Auto EV pickup base model launches below $27,500 excluding subsidies?

Apr 26, 5:43 AMDec 31, 6:39 AM

39.62%chance

8885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1234

810

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.33%chance

5363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will Buick sell 20k+ EVs in the US in 2030?

Oct 5, 10:04 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

49.55%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

What will be the mass of the first detected BSM particle, in eV?

Aug 29, 2:33 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

75.07%chance

6161

OptionProbability

NO

YES

241

115

What will be the market share of sodium-ion batteries in EVs by 2030?

Jan 8, 6:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

235

OptionProbability

15% to 25%

25% to 50%

5% to 15%

0% to 5%

Over 50%

27

27

18

14

14

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