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Prediction markets for EVA

Who will be the next president of France?

Feb 6, 11:00 PMMay 31, 9:59 PM

14938282

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

Édouard Philippe

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Other

Marine Le Pen

Gabriel Attal

Dominique de Villepin

David Lisnard

Gérald Darmanin

François Hollande

Raphaël Glucksmann

Francois Ruffin

Olivier Faure

Marine Tondelier

Gérard Larcher

Christine Lagarde

Michel Barnier

Emmanuel Macron

Xavier Bertrand

Laurent Wauquiez

Bruno Le Maire

Carole Delga

Bernard Cazeneuve

Marion Maréchal

Eric Zemmour

Ségolène Royal

Nicolas Sarkozy

Alain Coulombel

Cécile Duflot

Eva Joly

Christiane Taubira

François-Xavier Bellamy

Manon Aubry

Marie Toussaint

Nathalie Arthaud

Philippe Poutou

29

22

10

8

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Tehran be evacuated?

Dec 2, 6:30 PMDec 2, 10:59 PM

16.27%chance

63419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2272

441

Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Apr 5, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.29%chance

543046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

796

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?

Feb 18, 6:17 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

22.71%chance

141961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1845

542

Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Mar 7, 1:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.74%chance

301897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

946

At least 50% of US citizens have been evacuated from Taiwan within a six month period before 2037

Jun 13, 12:58 AMJun 13, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

20711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

990

969

Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?

Jun 5, 11:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.18%chance

15391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

877

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

Candice Horbacz (Eva Lovia) (Permanent)

Feb 22, 3:54 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

446

OptionProbability

NO

YES

96

85

Will "Why AI Evaluation Regimes are bad" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 2, 10:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Three Months In, Evaluating Three Rationalist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 1:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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