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Prediction markets for Eve

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

293621314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2834

2566

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.75%chance

186325612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

758

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

29.57%chance

1953878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16624

6806

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32582

1375

Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Mar 24, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.32%chance

14135138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19036

9645

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6224

5524

Will Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?

Jun 3, 2:10 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.86%chance

4515871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15703

6520

Eve

Feb 21, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.02%chance

7319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

115

Private New Year's Eve Fireworks possible in Germany?

Jul 1, 10:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2110

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

92

90

50

50

Will "By default, capital will matter more than eve..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 29, 10:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

25.47%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

53

Will "Raising children on the eve of AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 16, 3:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

33%chance

224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

82

25

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