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Amgen Beats Estimates and Lifts 2025 Outlook on Strong Drug Sales

1 day ago

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

2018

481

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

33318

3293

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

32582

1375

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

519229

OptionVotes

YES

4603

217

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

1245

808

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

14.1%chance

32999

OptionVotes

YES

1456

875

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

YES

1128

953

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Who will be on Matan Even's show by the end of 2025?

May 11, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3158

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Josh Hawley

AOC

JD Vance

Trump

Kamala

Will Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)

Dec 9, 10:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.39%chance

343

OptionVotes

YES

111

When will things die? Odd year=100%, even=0%

Jul 18, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

230

OptionProbability

America's president is older than China's top leader

The independent polity of Taiwan (ie no foreign hostile troops)

Donald Trump's life

Elon's CEOship of Tesla

Japan's got an emperor or empress who is in residence in Tokyo

The Beatles (Paul or Ringo is still alive)

USS Gerald Ford (aircraft carrier, is seaworthy and in mil service)

The moon's long streak of having no humans on it

Martian soil's virginity to a living human's foot

The 9****** series of CA passenger license plates

North Korea's de facto physical / political independence

Putin's life

Will a viral vector (even an engineered one) integrate a part JoseLuisRiconome-DNA into some1 else's DNA by 2033?

Sep 15, 1:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

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Aug 5, 2025
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Amgen Beats Estimates and Lifts 2025 Outlook on Strong Drug Sales
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Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Who will be on Matan Even's show by the end of 2025?

Will Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)

When will things die? Odd year=100%, even=0%

Will a viral vector (even an engineered one) integrate a part JoseLuisRiconome-DNA into some1 else's DNA by 2033?

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