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Prediction markets for Evenity

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.73%chance

5410450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5083

197

Will the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisionally?

Feb 28, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.89%chance

111798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

283

35

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

11.83%chance

331249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

838

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.81%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

905

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Matan Even Stock (Permanent)

Dec 13, 12:56 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

9178

OptionProbability

YES

NO

218

171

Will "Do you even have a system prompt? (PSA / repo) " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 4, 6:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?

Jan 29, 4:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

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