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Prediction markets for Evenity

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Does the US take control of Kharg Island (Iran) with boots on the ground even just for an hour before ... (UTC)?

Mar 8, 5:18 PMDec 31, 5:13 PM

3615242

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

26

0

0

0

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.72%chance

5510453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5086

197

Which Google or Microsoft Product still Exists even in January 2030

Sep 17, 6:31 AMJan 31, 6:29 PM

121525

OptionProbability

Windows

Gmail

Android

Microsoft Copilot

Gemini

Outlook

Google Chrome

Google Maps

Microsoft Teams

Google Earth

Visual Studio

DeepMind

Google Keep

Microsoft Edge

ChromeOS or Chromebook

Google Pay

Android TV

Fitbit

Skype

97

97

96

89

86

85

85

83

80

80

69

61

61

56

55

54

41

38

1

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.54%chance

121326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

543

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

11.83%chance

331249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

838

Will, as Trump acts more and more outrageously, they "use the 25th to replace him with Vance" who will be "even worse"?

Jan 22, 10:44 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

12698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.43%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

981

Will "Do you even have a system prompt? (PSA / repo) " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 4, 6:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

Will "Try, even if they have you cold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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