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Prediction markets for Evenity

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

2.18%chance

5816149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6703

149

Which Google or Microsoft Product still Exists even in January 2030

Sep 17, 6:31 AMJan 31, 6:29 PM

141654

OptionProbability

Gmail

Windows

Android

Google Chrome

Microsoft Copilot

Google Maps

Gemini

Outlook

Google Earth

Microsoft Teams

Visual Studio

DeepMind

Google Keep

Microsoft Edge

ChromeOS or Chromebook

Google Pay

Android TV

Fitbit

Skype

96

95

94

91

89

89

86

84

79

78

68

60

60

55

54

53

41

38

1

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.45%chance

131334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2153

542

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

12.01%chance

331272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1683

841

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Depending on whether Trump wins the election, will Bezos become even richer by 2029?

Oct 29, 11:49 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4470

OptionProbability

Trump wins, Bezos becomes richer

Trump wins, Bezos becomes poorer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes richer

Trump loses, Bezos becomes poorer

77

20

2

1

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

79.01%chance

11213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

952

Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.43%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

981

NFL Week 10: Will the Chargers vs. Ravens game have an even or odd total point score?

Aug 18, 6:31 PMNov 17, 1:12 AM

47.82%chance

4102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

957

Will "Do you even have a system prompt? (PSA / repo) " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 4, 6:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

Will "Try, even if they have you cold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

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