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Evenity News

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.04%chance

4852336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3129

336

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.49%chance

5310344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4613

217

Which Google or Microsoft Product still Exists even in January 2030

Sep 17, 6:31 AMJan 31, 6:29 PM

111515

OptionProbability

Windows

Gmail

Android

Microsoft Copilot

Gemini

Outlook

Google Chrome

Google Maps

Microsoft Teams

Google Earth

Visual Studio

DeepMind

Google Keep

ChromeOS or Chromebook

Google Pay

Microsoft Edge

Android TV

Fitbit

Skype

97

97

96

89

86

85

85

83

80

80

69

61

61

55

54

51

41

38

1

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

11.83%chance

331249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1706

838

Will, as Trump acts more and more outrageously, they "use the 25th to replace him with Vance" who will be "even worse"?

Jan 22, 10:44 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

14.28%chance

12698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

41

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.81%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

905

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Will FIFA allow Trump to move even one 2026 World Cup venue?

Sep 27, 1:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.77%chance

488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

187

Will "Do you even have a system prompt? (PSA / repo) " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 4, 6:41 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.29%chance

262

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

979

Will a viral vector (even an engineered one) integrate a part JoseLuisRiconome-DNA into some1 else's DNA by 2033?

Sep 15, 1:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

80

62

Fairly Odd or Even

Feb 4, 2:50 PMFeb 6, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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