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Top stories

Amgen Beats Estimates and Lifts 2025 Outlook on Strong Drug Sales

Company Earnings

Amgen Beats Estimates and Lifts 2025 Outlook on Strong Drug Sales

Authors

10

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Evenity

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.23%chance

4751212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2018

481

Will @ElonMusk force people to see his X posts even if blocked?

Sep 24, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.21%chance

7047175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33318

3293

Will Manifold achieve break-even profitability in 2025?

Feb 14, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

6239747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32582

1375

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

519229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4603

217

Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?

Mar 20, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

343752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

808

[Let's Play] Will this game last an even number of rounds? (Round 1)

Jul 20, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

293238

OptionProbability

Stop Playing (and win)

Lose

Continue Playing (and win)

63

21

16

Will a piece of music composed by AI be adopted (even if partly) as a national anthem by any country by 2030?

May 19, 3:40 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

14.1%chance

32999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

875

Will an transformer action AI (like adept.ai) be able to navigate and smoothly click all the "expand all" links to archive an entire Slack channel by 2025? (even if just via OBS Studio)

Feb 20, 7:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.49%chance

15236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

953

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Who will be on Matan Even's show by the end of 2025?

May 11, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3158

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Josh Hawley

AOC

JD Vance

Trump

Kamala

50

46

17

16

12

10

Will "An even deeper atheism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 7, 8:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9%chance

154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

93

If OpenAI open-sources o3-mini*, will it open-source an even more powerful model before July 2026?

Feb 21, 7:29 PMJul 2, 6:59 AM

65.58%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

138

72

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