OptionVotes
YES
NO
2124
894
1285
939
OptionProbability
8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year
2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later
7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months
1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later
3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later
6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year
9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years
4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later
5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months
79
63
61
56
55
50
44
42
37
horizons arcana (singapore)
horizons europa (europe)
horizons polaris (canada)
horizons crux (australia)
horizons equinox (africa)
horizons sol (south america)
Other
69
10
9
3
173
97
