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Eventual News

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, which country is most likely to detonate it first?

Aug 20, 4:09 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

909953

OptionProbability

🇮🇱 Israel

🇺🇸 United States of America

🇷🇺 Russia

🇵🇰 Pakistan

🇰🇵 North Korea

Other

🇮🇳 India

🇮🇷 Iran

🇨🇳 China

24

21

18

12

9

7

4

4

1

In the eventuality of a nuclear weapon being used, where it will be dropped first?

Nov 2, 10:52 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

326679

OptionProbability

Iran

South China Sea

Pakistan

India

United States

Russia

Gold

Ukraine

Taiwan

China

Venezuela

Washington DC

Guam

Belarus

Jerusalem

Okinawa

The Philippines

South Korea

Seoul

Gaza Strip

13

13

12

11

11

10

10

8

7

7

7

6

6

6

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will I eventually make USACO Camp

Oct 26, 10:14 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

20.72%chance

284130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1956

511

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.91%chance

151810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2581

389

Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination

Feb 12, 8:13 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

66.75%chance

13890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

706

Will human life expectancy eventually increase more than a year every year.

Dec 28, 3:13 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.95%chance

11300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

187

145

Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort

Jan 29, 4:08 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

75.12%chance

11287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

377

147

Will the eventual fate of the universe be heat death / big freeze?

Jul 26, 4:45 AMAug 3, 3:59 AM

69.93%chance

495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

66

Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

570

OptionProbability

Jeffrey Sachs

Huey Li (and the news)

SerpentZA

Laowhy86

Nicholas Kristof

Michael Pettis

Peter Hessler

James Fallows

Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

Liziqi

Nathan Rich

Living in China

Jerry Kowal

Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

Asia Society Policy Institute

Yale Center Beijing

Brookings Institution (China Center)

Blondie in China

Elon Musk

Bill Bishop, Sinocism

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

41

40

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

May 24, 10:44 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Hasan Piker have interviewed or rallied with the eventual 2028 Democratic nominee?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMNov 7, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Which eventuality is more dangerous about AI?

Jan 2, 8:17 PM

260

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