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Prediction markets for Everly

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

46.82%chance

198334214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1472

803

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

17.02%chance

418230279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4576

1142

Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Mar 24, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.15%chance

14852950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16390

9978

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.43%chance

19637008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3008

1200

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.19%chance

12024167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

935

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

2820756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6324

5475

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

8618421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

904

Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

19.07%chance

8213524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4028

1023

Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.15%chance

538105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4684

3441

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1907

524

Will the "Trump Nobel Peace Prize 2026" market ever reach 10% again?

Jan 20, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.4%chance

162359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2796

1484

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