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This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Dec 30, 6:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.41%chance

12222971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

420

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.18%chance

11121915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3515

1464

Will I confidently think in 2026 that taking 120mg MDMA once every two months is less damaging to health than drinking two beers every night for 8 days in a row once every two months?

Dec 23, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.13%chance

562229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1366

705

Will ASML's revenue increase every year for the next 5 years?

Feb 27, 5:57 PMFeb 27, 4:00 PM

83.76%chance

141090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

880

Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?

Apr 10, 3:20 PMDec 31, 1:05 PM

36.26%chance

16676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

991

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2106

1843

Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 1:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

76.95%chance

15437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

808

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 200 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 3:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.25%chance

16326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

918

If I set up a Twitter account that posts a Magic: The Gathering rules question every day, will it have at least 400 followers a month later?

Dec 17, 2:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57.96%chance

14273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

926

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

Will "The Best Reference Works for Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 6, 10:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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