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Prediction markets for Evolent

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

5715232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5952

168

Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?

Aug 27, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.38%chance

3614218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6402

156

In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

393812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

979

By the end of 2025, will H5N1 Bird Flu have evolved to the point where the CDC declares it a global pandemic for humans?

Dec 26, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.05%chance

151743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

21

Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?

Apr 8, 9:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

77.03%chance

19567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

831

Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?

Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

35.28%chance

12308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

924

Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?

Apr 12, 11:04 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25.5%chance

9215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

243

Which Pokemon will get new evolutions in the next mainline game?

Oct 23, 12:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5114

OptionProbability

Cloyster

Granbull

Hypno

Golduck

Eevee

Kabutops

Jynx

Ninetales

45

45

41

34

34

31

26

25

Will a new wild sarbecoronavirus be observed with an evolved furin cleavage site before 2030?

Nov 25, 5:52 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

29.68%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

118

When will it be scientific consensus chins evolved for stomach sleeping?

Jul 23, 1:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.6%chance

222

OptionProbability

NO

YES

120

1

Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?

Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will Caleb Finch, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Southern California, reach age 93?

Aug 28, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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