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Prediction markets for Evolent

Will Europe evolve into a united nation by 2030?

Aug 27, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.5%chance

3814222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6243

160

In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.25%chance

403912

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

916

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?

Apr 8, 9:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

76.97%chance

19568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

832

Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?

Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

33.7%chance

12358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

898

When will an AI develop, maintain and evolve by itself a full web application?

Apr 26, 12:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4280

OptionProbability

after 2054

2028

2030

2034

2038

2046

2054

2026

2025

19

12

12

12

12

12

12

6

4

Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?

Apr 12, 11:04 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25.5%chance

9215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

243

Which Pokemon will get new evolutions in the next mainline game?

Oct 23, 12:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8208

OptionProbability

Eevee

Hypno

Cloyster

Granbull

Jynx

Golduck

Kabutops

Ninetales

50

33

31

31

26

25

25

22

Which of These New Mega Evolutions will be in Ubers?

Sep 9, 2:40 PMOct 16, 2:36 PM

577

OptionProbability

Greninja

Chesnaught

Delphox

Dragonite

Hawlucha

Raichu X

Raichu Y

Malamar

Victreebel

76

66

66

52

50

50

50

41

27

Will a new wild sarbecoronavirus be observed with an evolved furin cleavage site before 2030?

Nov 25, 5:52 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

29.68%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

118

When will it be scientific consensus chins evolved for stomach sleeping?

Jul 23, 1:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.6%chance

222

OptionProbability

NO

YES

120

1

Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?

Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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