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Prediction markets for Evolent

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.56%chance

5714482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5202

192

Which Pokémon will gain a new Mega Evolution when Pokemon Legends: Z-A is released?

Mar 24, 9:17 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

277949

OptionProbability

Dragonite

Zygarde

Zeraora

Floette

Greninja

Victreebel

Delphox

Chesnaught

Emboar

Feraligatr

Excadrill

MEGAnium

Malamar

Eelektross

Hawlucha

Pyroar

Starmie

A Pokémon we haven't seen as of March 25, 2025

Vespiquen

Flygon

Dudunsparce

Milotic

Weavile

YanMEGA

Pangoro

Luxray

Aegislash

Staraptor

Talonflame

Charizard, AGAIN

Shuckle

Ninetales

Ampharos, AGAIN

Torterra

Empoleon

Infernape

Incineroar

100

90

90

89

87

87

86

86

86

86

86

84

83

83

76

76

75

64

24

18

18

18

18

18

17

16

16

16

16

15

15

11

5

3

2

2

1

In 2030, will there be at least 50,000 people in whatever the Neom project has evolved into by then?

Aug 2, 7:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.73%chance

383807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

974

By the end of 2025, will H5N1 Bird Flu have evolved to the point where the CDC declares it a global pandemic for humans?

Dec 26, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.28%chance

141643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

386

26

Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?

Apr 8, 9:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

77.03%chance

19567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

831

Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?

Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

35.28%chance

12308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1119

924

When will an AI develop, maintain and evolve by itself a full web application?

Apr 26, 12:22 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4280

OptionProbability

after 2054

2028

2030

2034

2038

2046

2054

2026

2025

19

12

12

12

12

12

12

6

4

Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?

Apr 12, 11:04 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25.5%chance

9215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

243

Will a new wild sarbecoronavirus be observed with an evolved furin cleavage site before 2030?

Nov 25, 5:52 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

29.68%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

118

When will it be scientific consensus chins evolved for stomach sleeping?

Jul 23, 1:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.17%chance

112

OptionProbability

NO

YES

110

7

Will Riconosaurus Rex be featured in an episode of Barney & Friends OR Ark: Survival Evolved by 2100?

Aug 6, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will Caleb Finch, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Southern California, reach age 93?

Aug 28, 11:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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