OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Josh Shapiro
Pete Buttigieg
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Gretchen Whitmer
Marco Rubio
Jon Ossoff
Josh Hawley
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
Andy Beshear
Kamala Harris
Mark Kelly
Ron DeSantis
Elise Stefanik
Wes Moore
Stephen Miller
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Chris Sununu
Jeff Jackson
Donald Trump Jr.
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Sam Altman
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
J. B. Pritzker
Cory Booker
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Tulsi Gabbard
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Katie Hobbs
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
Mark Cuban
Erika Kirk
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Kevin Stitt
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
28
18
18
15
13
12
12
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Santa is rigged
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Imane Khelif is intersex
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The Trump regime intentionally sabotaged the electoral process to stay in power
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
Groundhog Day is rigged
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Dead Internet theory
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Gamergate was right
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
China was not genociding Uyghurs
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
The CIA killed JFK
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Bush did 9/11
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
QR codes are satanic
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Rationalussy isn't real.
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
The illuminati runs the world
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The earth is a dodecahedron
End of the world in 2012
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
87
82
82
81
80
80
76
76
74
71
70
68
67
67
62
59
55
52
50
49
48
48
48
47
46
45
42
40
38
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
33
33
33
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
PianoVision
Quantum Odyssey
The Farmer Was Replaced
Treasure Cove
Math blasters
Brain Age
Dance Dance Revolution
Turing Complete
Rocksmith
NandGame
Scale of the universe
SHENZHEN I/O
Zoombinis
https://www.geogridgame.com/
Mahjong
runescape
Poly Bridge
Victoria II
Universal Paperclips [Invalid, already played]
Antbuster [Invalid, already played]
Spore [Invalid, already played]
Geoguessr [Invalid, already played]
A Slower Speed of Light [Invalid, already played]
Scrandle
Epistory
The Forgotten City
ANTE
Europa Universalis IV
Silicon Zeroes
Factorio [Invalid, already played]
Magic the Gathering [Invalid, already played]
Zendo
Jahooma's logic box
Civilization VI [Invalid, already played]
Murder, she bet
Terraforming Mars [Invalid, already played]
Captain of Industry
Hackmud
Cool Math Games [Invalid, not a game]
Duo Lingo [Invalid, not a game]
Democracy 3
Plague Inc: Evolved
Age of Empires II [Invalid, already played]
Airport CEO
Kerbal Space Program [Invalid, already played]
Chess [Invalid, already played]
Cellcraft [Invalid, already played]
Imperivm: Great Battles of Rome
Pharaoh
Untrusted
Cinco Paus
We Become What We Behold
Sine Rider
http://robozzle.com/
https://logicbox.jahooma.com/
https://lab.quantumflytrap.com/
The Battle of Polytopia
https://microcorruption.com/
Frog Fractions
Poker [Invalid, already played]
Monopoly [Invalid, already played]
15
10
9
6
6
6
6
6
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6300
159
OptionProbability
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
human steps on moon again
grok 6 release date
fable (2026) releases
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Saw XI Releases in USA
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
trump dies
stripe ipo happens
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
biden dies
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
polymarket or kalshi ipo
windows 12 announcement is made
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
putin or zelensky lose power
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
yoko ono passes away
noam chomsky passes away
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
llama 5 release date
playstation 6 announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Third dune movie officially announced
beyonce releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
apple announces a smart ring
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
Cy Young award winner announced
coup in an african country
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
fourth Knives Out movie announced
anthropic stock able to be bought on nyse
new Doctor Who showrunner announced (after RTD departure)
Third dune movie releases
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
grok 5 release date
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
First game of the MLB World Series starts
nobel peace prize winner announced
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
iphone fold release date known
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
the first Solar eclipse of the year
Patriot Games ending day
Patriot Games starting day
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
fifa world cup - last game ends
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
Taylor swift gets married
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
Kier Starmer out
alan greenspan passes away
Manifest 2026 starts
spacex IPO happens
drake releases an album
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
another trump assassination attempt
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
new iphone releases (in the USA)
trump removes a cabinet member
First Apple Event of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
manifold launches real money trading
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
First Nintendo direct of the year
doomsday clock announcement made
98
98
97
97
97
97
97
96
96
95
94
93
92
90
89
87
85
85
83
83
83
78
72
70
70
70
66
66
66
66
64
63
63
62
60
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
52
52
52
50
50
50
50
50
47
45
44
44
43
43
42
40
39
38
37
36
36
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
28
27
27
26
25
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1129
884
OptionProbability
Deviations from the Cosmological Priniciple
Systematic errors in distance measurement techniques
Evolving dark energy with time-dependent properties
Relativistic backreaction / timescape cosmology (breakdown of global FLRW averaging)
Local cosmic void (KBC void) around the Milky Way
Measurement errors in CMB calibration
Early dark energy in the early universe
Warm dark matter
Interactions between dark matter and dark energy
New relativistic particles in early universe
Rotating universe model
Modified gravity theory (MOND/Milgromian dynamics)
Vacuum phase transition in early universe
Primordial magnetic fields
Primordial magnetic fields
Non-zero spatial curvature of the universe
Modified gravity (higher order models)
Quantum gravity modified dynamics
Quantum gravity effects on particles and fields
Modified gravity (non-local models)
42
37
37
37
29
29
25
23
21
21
21
16
16
15
15
14
4
3
3
3
OptionProbability
after 2054
2028
2030
2034
2038
2046
2054
2026
2025
19
12
12
12
12
12
12
6
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
332
243
OptionVotes
YES
NO
192
118
OptionProbability
NO
YES
120
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
101
99
