OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
Josh Shapiro
Josh Hawley
Gretchen Whitmer
Marco Rubio
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Mark Kelly
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Glenn Youngkin
J. B. Pritzker
Andy Beshear
Jon Ossoff
Ron DeSantis
Elise Stefanik
Wes Moore
Mark Cuban
Nikki Haley
Jeff Jackson
Stephen Miller
Vivek Ramaswamy
Cory Booker
Raphael Warnock
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Tammy Duckworth
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Chris Sununu
Katie Hobbs
Tim Scott
Brian Kemp
Kristi Noem
Beto O'Rourke
John Fetterman
Tom Cotton
Brian Schatz
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Tammy Baldwin
Kevin Stitt
Spencer Cox
Tate Reeves
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Ted Cruz
Joe Rogan
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Jared Polis
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Catherine Cortez Masto
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Ruben Gallego
Donald Trump Jr.
Erika Kirk
Kamala Harris
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tucker Carlson
Will Hurd
Tulsi Gabbard
Dan Crenshaw
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Amy Klobuchar
Andrew Yang
Stephen Colbert
Stephen Curry
Markwayne Mullin
Rand Paul
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Ivanka Trump
David Hogg
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mark Zuckerberg
Mike Pence
Jon Stewart
DUPLICATE
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Tim Walz
Al Gore
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
41
23
18
18
15
13
13
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Imane Khelif is intersex
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
DHMO in the water supply
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
John McAfee didn't kill himself
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The CIA killed JFK
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The NFL is rigged
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
A cure for cancer has already been found
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Israel killed JFK
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Bush did 9/11
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Princess Diana was assassinated
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
90
85
85
82
80
77
76
75
74
71
70
69
65
52
52
51
50
48
46
42
42
42
41
41
39
39
38
37
37
36
35
35
32
31
31
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Other
PianoVision
Quantum Odyssey
The Farmer Was Replaced
Treasure Cove
Math blasters
Brain Age
Dance Dance Revolution
Turing Complete
Rocksmith
NandGame
Scale of the universe
SHENZHEN I/O
Zoombinis
https://www.geogridgame.com/
Mahjong
runescape
Poly Bridge
Victoria II
Universal Paperclips [Invalid, already played]
Frog Fractions
Antbuster [Invalid, already played]
Spore [Invalid, already played]
Geoguessr [Invalid, already played]
A Slower Speed of Light [Invalid, already played]
Scrandle
Epistory
The Forgotten City
ANTE
Europa Universalis IV
Silicon Zeroes
Factorio [Invalid, already played]
Magic the Gathering [Invalid, already played]
Zendo
Jahooma's logic box
Civilization VI [Invalid, already played]
Murder, she bet
Terraforming Mars [Invalid, already played]
Captain of Industry
Hackmud
Cool Math Games [Invalid, not a game]
Duo Lingo [Invalid, not a game]
Democracy 3
Plague Inc: Evolved
Age of Empires II [Invalid, already played]
Airport CEO
Kerbal Space Program [Invalid, already played]
Chess [Invalid, already played]
Cellcraft [Invalid, already played]
Imperivm: Great Battles of Rome
Pharaoh
Untrusted
Cinco Paus
We Become What We Behold
Sine Rider
http://robozzle.com/
https://logicbox.jahooma.com/
https://lab.quantumflytrap.com/
The Battle of Polytopia
https://microcorruption.com/
Poker [Invalid, already played]
Monopoly [Invalid, already played]
15
10
9
6
6
6
6
6
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
6362
157
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1079
916
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
trump dies
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
playstation 6 announced
manifold launches real money trading
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
putin or zelensky lose power
windows 12 announcement is made
Saw XI Releases in USA
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
Kier Starmer out
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Cy Young award winner announced
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
yoko ono passes away
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
new iphone releases (in the USA)
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
First Apple Event of the year
Manifest 2026 starts
fifa world cup - last game ends
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
Taylor swift gets married
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
trump removes a cabinet member
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
Last day of the NFL draft
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
First Nintendo direct of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
doomsday clock announcement made
98
90
89
87
87
85
83
83
83
80
76
76
76
76
76
72
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66
65
65
61
61
60
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
57
56
56
56
55
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
46
46
45
44
44
44
44
43
41
41
41
38
36
35
35
34
34
34
31
30
28
24
24
20
18
14
11
9
7
4
1
OptionProbability
USA Government has a shutdown
Nioh 3 releases
grok 5 releases
100th spacex launch of the year
Manifest 2026 happens
SpaceX IPOs
twitter x mail releases
Coyote vs Acme releases
taylor swift married
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Twitter/x releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
discord IPOs
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
Chat GPT 6 releases
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
trump removes a cabinet member
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
noam chomsky passes away
windows 12 announcement is made
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
new apple iphone releases
Twitter gets a new CEO
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
grok 6 releases
Saw XI Releases in USA
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
A commercial airline hijacking
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Haunted Chocolatier releases
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
99
90
76
76
76
66
66
59
57
52
50
50
50
50
49
40
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
31
28
28
24
24
24
17
15
14
13
10
9
5
5
OptionProbability
after 2054
2028
2030
2034
2038
2046
2054
2026
2025
19
12
12
12
12
12
12
6
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
332
243
OptionVotes
YES
NO
192
118
OptionProbability
NO
YES
120
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
101
99
