OptionProbability
J. D. Vance
Josh Shapiro
Gavin Newsom
Pete Buttigieg
J. B. Pritzker
Gretchen Whitmer
Marco Rubio
Jeff Jackson
Jon Ossoff
Josh Hawley
KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Glenn Youngkin
Elise Stefanik
Nikki Haley
Ron DeSantis
Wes Moore
Andy Beshear
Donald Trump Jr.
Kamala Harris
Brian Kemp
Amy Klobuchar
Cory Booker
Gina Raimondo
Ro Khanna
Chris Murphy
Brian Schatz
Tammy Duckworth
Tammy Baldwin
Chris Sununu
Katie Hobbs
Josh Green
Tina Kotek
Vivek Ramaswamy
Ted Cruz
Kristi Noem
Raphael Warnock
Jared Polis
Tom Cotton
Joni Ernst
Michael Bennet
Catherine Cortez Masto
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Kevin Stitt
Spencer Cox
Tim Walz
Ivanka Trump
Mark Cuban
Stephen Miller
James Donaldson (MrBeast)
Tim Scott
Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Andrew Yang
Beto O'Rourke
Mark Kelly
Jay Inslee
Deval Patrick
Eric Swalwell
Wayne Messam
Kirsten Gillibrand
Julian Castro
Dean Phillips
Katie Britt
Laphonza Butler
Eric Schmitt
Mike Lee
Chris Coons
Tim Kaine
Lisa Murkowski
Tate Reeves
Ruben Gallego
David Hogg
Will Hurd
Tulsi Gabbard
Dan Crenshaw
John Fetterman
Mark Zuckerberg
Stephen Curry
Rand Paul
Taylor Swift
Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)
Matt Gaetz
Joe Rogan
Marianne Williamson
Ezra Klein
Mike Pence
Stephen Colbert
Markwayne Mullin
Joe Manchin
Maura Healey
Al Gore
DUPLICATE
Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Aella
Scott Alexander
Sam Altman
Tucker Carlson
Zendaya
Michelle Obama
Kanye West
Mitt Romney
Sarah Palin
Jon Stewart
Ben Shapiro
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)
Me
Krantz (the user @Krantz)
41
22
17
14
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
√-1 isn't real
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Human didnt evolve from apes
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Groundhog Day is rigged
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Dead Internet theory
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Annie Altman's abuse claims
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The CIA killed JFK
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
Gamergate was right
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
China made covid 19 in a lab
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Harold Holt murdered
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
A cure for cancer has already been found
Princess Diana was assassinated
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Israel killed JFK
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Ogopogo is real
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Exercise is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
QAnon
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Bush did 9/11
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
The moon landing was fake
climate change isn't human caused
Michelle Obama is a man
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Climate change isn’t real
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
97
95
91
88
83
80
76
75
75
74
73
71
70
70
69
66
61
52
50
50
50
49
48
47
46
46
45
45
43
41
40
37
34
33
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32
31
31
31
30
29
28
28
28
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28
28
27
26
26
25
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10
10
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10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Chat GPT 5 releases
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
Mr Beast reaches 400M subscribers on youtube
English Wikipedia reaches 7M articles or more
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
new apple iphone releases
Manifest 2025 happens
Trump enacts tariffs on china
Spider Man Beyond the Spider Verse release date announced
Coyote vs Acme release date is announced
Verdict in P Diddy Sean Combs trial is reached
Trump deportations officially start happening
100th spacex launch of the year
grok 4 releases
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet
Release date of Hollow Knight Silksong known
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
Skate 4 releases
Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
StubHub IPO finalized
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Twitter gets a new CEO
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
SpaceX IPO finalized
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
USA Government has a shutdown
Eric Adams no longer mayor of NYC
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
Stripe IPO finalized
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
A commercial airline hijacking
This market reaches 500 traders
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
87
85
53
50
50
50
47
40
39
31
29
24
24
23
20
19
18
9
8
7
7
6
5
5
4
2
OptionProbability
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more
a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
this market reaches 100 traders
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
this market reaches 5k individual TRADES
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
alan greenspan passes away
coup in an african country
noam chomsky passes away
chinese spy balloon incident reported on news
another trump assassination attempt
discord IPO happens
2025 nobel peace prize winner announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses
Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage
zootopia 2 releases
Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
First game of the MLB World Series starts
manifold raises more money
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
MLB rookie of the year announced
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
stripe ipo happens
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Cy Young award winner announced
Third dune movie officially announced
trump removes a cabinet member
Skate 4 releases
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
windows 12 announcement is made
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
the third Atlantic hurricane of the season
someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
trump starts mass deportations
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam
grok4 release date
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the third Pacific hurricane of the season
28 years Later releases in USA
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
chime IPO happens
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
First Apple Event of the year
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
manifest 2025 ends
Manifest 2025 starts
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
south korean president removed from power
the first Solar eclipse of the year
First Nintendo direct of the year
trump declares war or orders military actions on another country
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
new iphone releases in the USA (official date)
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
new iphone release date announced (in the USA)
grok 3 release date
nintendo switch successor announced officially
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
doomsday clock announcement
USA President issues 10th executive order
USA President issues 1st executive order
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
this market reaches 1k individual TRADES
98
94
86
86
86
86
81
79
76
76
75
74
72
72
72
71
69
69
69
67
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21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
993
974
OptionVotes
YES
NO
386
26
OptionProbability
after 2054
2028
2030
2034
2038
2046
2054
2026
2025
19
12
12
12
12
12
12
6
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
332
243
OptionVotes
YES
NO
192
118
OptionProbability
NO
YES
110
7
OptionVotes
NO
YES
101
99