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Prediction markets for Exa

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.72%chance

19470814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5721

1690

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2%chance

2248257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39449

1399

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

7217103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

446

Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?

Jan 30, 4:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.12%chance

828373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1976

671

Will there still be exactly 50 US states by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.62%chance

703180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1034

Will Kim Kardashian ever pass the California bar exam?

Nov 8, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

162018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

55.29%chance

271455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

406

Will Deltarune have exactly one ending?

Dec 19, 10:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.34%chance

201376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

1042

By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust?

Feb 9, 8:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.41%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

909

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

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