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Prediction markets for Exa

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.95%chance

19570826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5527

1702

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.03%chance

2448283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39044

1407

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.25%chance

10032064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4865

283

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.22%chance

7818700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

589

Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?

Jan 30, 4:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.46%chance

838817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2080

494

Will there still be exactly 50 US states by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.49%chance

713280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2006

1016

Will Deltarune have exactly one ending?

Dec 19, 10:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.47%chance

303269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

1006

Will the United States of America be composed of exactly 50 states by 2030?

Nov 21, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.98%chance

392902

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1514

867

Will Kim Kardashian ever pass the California bar exam?

Nov 8, 10:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.63%chance

182056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

893

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

49.72%chance

281532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

340

By 2100, will there be a new thing people use as their go-to example of maximal evil/tragedy to replace the Nazis/Holocaust?

Feb 9, 8:19 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.41%chance

15387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

909

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

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