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Prediction markets for Exame

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Jan 23, 2:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7775698

OptionProbability

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

30-40%

70-80%

20-30%

80-90%

90-100%

0-10%

10-20%

22

22

16

13

10

6

5

4

1

1

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Jan 19, 6:31 PMJan 31, 5:59 AM

5.88%chance

19270680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5587

1699

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?

Feb 28, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7458937

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2522

563

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.44%chance

5217397

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

871

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

6916510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.12%chance

5512961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2155

621

Will OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?

Feb 3, 1:14 AMJun 16, 3:59 AM

26.4%chance

468319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?

Nov 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90.29%chance

162543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3050

328

Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?

Jul 11, 8:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

78.58%chance

20987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1611

710

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

64.17%chance

8357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1338

747

Will "About 30% of Humanity’s Last Exam chemistry/b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 1:15 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

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