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Prediction markets for Exchange

Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?

Apr 5, 10:29 PMApr 5, 10:27 PM

15.25%chance

447892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2357

424

Will Binance be the #1 exchange in 2030?

Dec 15, 5:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

23.17%chance

404132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

787

Will the TXSE (Texas Stock Exchange) be seen as a viable alternative to the NYSE/Nasdaq by 2028?

Jun 5, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.42%chance

313083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2342

427

Will Twitter (X) be re listed in a public exchange and become a public company again before 2027?

Aug 6, 4:44 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

6.49%chance

182955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3615

552

Will Jesse Powell (co-founder of Kraken exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:12 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.9%chance

16897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

953

Will there be a recorded case of manipulating the real stock exchange index to obtain a huge amount of Ṁ before 2035?

Aug 11, 5:29 PMAug 11, 8:59 PM

5.61%chance

13822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

949

How much mana can I use to exchange for Airpods 4?

Jul 6, 5:03 AMDec 31, 5:50 AM

6640

OptionProbability

I will not receive a set of Airpods 4 from a Manifold user before 2026 EOY

Scenarios not covered by any other answers

50000-100000

100,000 or above

10000-20000

20000-30000

30000-40000

40000-50000

Less than 10000

61

10

5

5

4

4

4

4

2

Will Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 27, 11:22 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.44%chance

18638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

965

Will Fred Ehrsam (crypto investor, co-founder at Coinbase exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

10447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

939

Will Ben Delo (co-founder of BitMEX exchange) spend any time in prison before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

8.23%chance

5213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

324

78

Will Coinbase be the #1/2 exchange in 2030?

Dec 15, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

46.6%chance

9208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

129

Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?

Nov 8, 10:09 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

56.94%chance

1150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1150

870

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