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Prediction markets for Executive Board
If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?
Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM
15.73%chance
16740693
OptionVotes
24642
5236
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
56.6%chance
9413352
OptionVotes
1142
876
OptionVotes
6066
733
OptionVotes
3214
816
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?
Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
152884
OptionProbability
100
100
100
82
79
76
68
68
66
66
66
58
57
56
56
51
49
48
47
46
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
0
US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?
Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM
87.58%chance
162443
OptionVotes
2656
376
Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?
Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
38.23%chance
281788
OptionVotes
1000
980
Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?
May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
10.1%chance
131703
OptionVotes
1764
95
Will any Smithsonian museum be closed before EOY 2026?
Mar 28, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
77%chance
12605
OptionVotes
183
55
OptionVotes
292
34
Will there be any executive criminal liability for March 2023 banking failures?
Mar 14, 1:33 AMMar 14, 2:59 PM
6%chance
7456
OptionVotes
559
103


